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Long range forecast for the Carolinas

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Showers and incremental clouds will be in the forecast over the entire Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the next 5-7 days. Daytime heating combined with a weak impulse aloft will be enough to spark routine afternoon storms for the forseeable future. This is mostely due to a weak upper low parked over the Ohio Valley which will slowly meander around before exiting later in the week, next week.

As we head into the extended range, the NAO will begin to soar into the positive range, which will help carve out a trough over the western CONUS allowing for the dreaded Bermuda High and ridge configuration to setup. This will mark the true beginning of summer weather as we near June. This should allow for a very warm and humid start to the first meteorological summer month over the eastern United States.

This trend can be seen in the ECMWF and GFS extended runs which can be found in the links below.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012051812!!/

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