A decaying area of low pressure and stalled out frontal boundary was located along the entire expanse of Lake Ontario early this morning. The presence of this system over the lake has sparked a westerly flow of winds over a large and wide fetch of the lake, thus facilitating the development of a band of snowfall the extends across the entire length of the water body and into the favored areas in its lee.
Across the Capital Region, the frontal boundary is expected to weaken further and to slide south of the area today. Behind it will come a fresh northwesterly breeze, and much colder temperatures. Arctic high pressure will settle into the region, from the Canadian Prairies, overnight tonight and set up temporary residence over the area through at least Thursday night. Bitter cold is forecast through this period with temperatures running as much as 5 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. Overnight lows may dip near or slightly below zero on Wednesday and Thursday nights across the Capital Region. This, combined with even a slight breeze, will bring wind chill temperatures into danger categories, so remember to dress appropriately if venturing outside overnight, or first thing in the early morning.
The next chance for precipitation looks to come on Friday, as a relatively strong low pressure area develops over Tennessee and Kentucky, and accelerates northeastward to a position over the Gulf of Maine on Saturday morning. At this point in time, a light to moderate snow event looks possible during the period from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. Conditions should gradually improve later Saturday and into Sunday as high pressure builds back into the region.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Morning snow showers and flurries diminishing by afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy, and cold. High near 20. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts to near 25 MPH possible at times this afternoon. Wind chill temperatures near zero at times. Chance of snow this morning is 30 percent. Little if any additional snow accumulation is expected.
Tonight: Mostly clear and frigid. Low near zero. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH. Wind chill temperatures from zero to 15 below zero.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and bitter cold. High near 15. Northwest winds 5-15 MPH. Wind chill temperatures from zero to 10 below zero.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear and frigid. Low zero to 5 below zero. Light northwest winds. Wind chill temperatures 5 to 15 below zero.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and bitter cold. High near 15. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH. Wind chill temperatures 5 above to 5 below zero.
Friday: Increasing clouds with a 40 percent chance of light snow during the afternoon. High near 20 and low near 10.
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of snow in the morning, otherwise becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. High near 20 and low near 10.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High near 25 and low near 10.