The latest Suffolk University / 7 News poll has been garnering attention mostly because it shows State Sen. Scott Brown leading State Attorney Gen. Martha Coakley, in a race that Coakley led by over 30 points a little more than two months ago. That data also comes from a Suffolk University / 7 News poll released November 12th, 2009.
When asked “is Massachusetts on the right track or the wrong track”, on Nov. 12th, respondents said 36% right track, and 53% wrong track. On January 14th, there was little change. It was 33% right track, and 55% wrong track.
In terms of personal favorability, Gov. Patrick received a 43% favorable rating on Nov. 12th, with a 47% disapproval number. On Jan. 14th, Gov. Patrick had a 41% favorable rating vs. a 50% unfavorable number.
Assuming those trends hold true, the Nov. 12th results from the question “Do you think Governor Patrick deserves to be re-elected or is it time to elect someone else?”, the disparity from the numbers 32% yes, 55% someone else, 13% undecided would be even greater.
In Worcester and MetroWest, the January 14th poll shows a favorability rating of 46%, and his unfavorability at 44%, an improvement from his state-wide numbers. His job approval numbers were in-line with the rest of the Commonwealth, however: Approve - 33%, Disapprove - 58%. That's identical to the "right track/wrong track" number: 33% Right Track, 58% Wrong Track.
On November 12th, in the Worcester and MetroWest area, Gov. Patrick's favorability numbers were 43% favorable, and 48% unfavorable. His job approval numbers, while not great, were certainly much better: 43% Approve, 50% Disapprove. The Right Track/Wrong Track number was: 29% Right Track, 54% Wrong Track.
Gov. Patrick has not mentioned much about re-election, other than the fact he was going to run again. It would stand to reason that these numbers will be improved should he expect a positive result on his part. He will have several factors in his favor however, such as name-recognition and the fact there are a lot of people in the race, meaning Gov. Patrick would only need a plurality and not a majority to win.
No candidate (and there are many) has run ads nor have there been any debates yet.
The Massachusetts Special Election for U.S. Senator is January 19th, three days from today