Here we go again, the winter that will not end. This one comes on the one-year anniversary of a late season snow event we had last year. That time Baltimore’s BWI had record setting 3.2 inches.
To mark another extreme we can look at March 1990. There were four days in a row between the 12th and 15th with temperatures in the 80s. Three of them still remain a record. Then on the 24th, Baltimore set a record with snowfall of 1.4”. It should be noted that the two days before that snow the temperature hit 66°F.
So a late season snow is possible, but it comes with a few challenges.
1) Warmer ground
2) Higher sun angle, which even through clouds can get absorbed by the ground leading to melting snow even on a cold snowy day. The only way to overcome this is high intensity snowfall rates.
The storm forming off of the coast will quickly develop into a monster. As I have been discussing for days on my Facebook page, this will happen out of the reach of the Mid Atlantic. However I did mention that the storm would end up a little closer to the coast than models have been projecting.
My forecast included snow, but how much was the big question. This was considering that much of this event would fall during the daylight hours resulting in wasted flakes. Now that we are very close to this arriving, it appears that there will be an extending period of potential snow. So the only real adjustment here is considering what might fall later in the day and after dark. That is why I have included some accumulation potential. The biggest impact would be farther east, closer to the coast along the Delmarva and New Jersey. A few hours of moderate snowfall may result in a few inches of snow.
This will end in our region before midnight.
My snowfall map does consider snowfall in parts of Virginia and West Virginia falling early in the morning. Much of metro Baltimore and Washington will have snow falling during the day with wet roads. This should arrive late morning to around lunchtime. There might be some accumulation on the grassy areas, but mainly a slushy trace to an inch. The best chance to get a little more would be after 7 PM, but only for a few hours. If anything, the other concern would be icing up as temperatures drop into the mid to lower 20s after the storm passes by Wednesday morning.
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Support my efforts: This is a great time to work off the active weather and see the app I made with my son (when he was 6 years old). It won a Parents Choice Award, was listed on Mashable.com's top 10 list of apps to teach kids science, and has been downloaded in 29 countries. We have over 400 items of trivia plus live weather and forecasts for kids. It's available on iTunes and for Android on Google Play and Amazon. See more and links for your device at kidweatherapp.com
I called for a cold and snowy winter based on many reasons and now with over 30 inches in Baltimore, we are 50% above normal. It has been active ever since the record early start for the local ski resorts the day after Thanksgiving, helping to prove validation for my atmospheric memory theory. I wind more than I lose and I will certainly be out to do it again.
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