The next debate and last one before the Iowa caucus is set to take place this Thursday night, December 15th at 8pm CST in Sioux City at the Sioux City Convention Center. It will be hosted by Fox News and the Iowa Republican Party. This will be the last major televised debate in Iowa as Donald Trump has finally decided to cancel his debate that was well on its way to being doomed anyway. With us being so close to Sioux City, it is a shame that the tickets for this event have sold out so quickly.
Even before the latest poll came out today showing Ron Paul surging into a first place tie in Iowa, I had predicted in my debate analysis of the last debate here that it looked likely after his last performance that he could win Iowa and that if he wins Iowa, he could have an even more decisive win in New Hampshire. Also, that contrary to the famous pundits out there, Newt Gingrich gave a weak performance in trying to defend himself during the last debate, so it was no surprise to see that his poll numbers fell by at least 5 points.
The real battleground and biggest fight of the early primary season will be actually in South Carolina. As many may recall, the last time around in 2008, it was South Carolina that was used to slow down the Mike Huckabee surge. I would anticipate that the establishment will pull out all the stops to try to slow down Ron Paul's momentum. In fact, it will probably be brutal. Mike Huckabee had the sudden participation of Fred Thompson last time that slowed him down, who knows if someone might suddenly come out of the woodwork to shake things up or a significant endorsement handed down by a real heavyweight. We should not rule out bags of dirty tricks either, as this anti-establishment strict Constitutionalist/Conservative is finally winning over more of the mainstream base of the party. Newt, Bush and the rest of the establishment has done this before to Ron Paul in his bid to return to Congress back in 1996. He was a fighter and prevailed against all the odds back then, so who knows what will happen in his third quest for the White House.
Ron Paul does not need to hit it out of the park this time in Sioux City but he can not make any major mistakes either. The rest of the candidates are going to have to give their best performances. This will help the rest of the candidates except Newt Gingrich, as his baggage and own record (see video) will most likely continue to deflate him as fast as the artificial, media-driven bubble of his rise was to begin with.
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