La Nina is strengthening in the Pacific Ocean for winter 2011-2012. This will make for an active season in Kansas City. Strong storm systems are likely to move through periodically with ice and snow.
The Climate Prediction Center, along with NOAA, has been following a transition back to La Nina conditions late this summer. A La Nina advisory was issued with the September forecast package. La Nina occurs as easterly winds in the Pacific push warm, surface water towards Asia. Cold water then upwells along the coasts of the Americas, leading to below normal water temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
La Nina, combined with weak solar output, typically leads to wet winters with wild temperature variations. La Nina autumns often have the tendency to be very calm and pleasant. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall is the current outlook for October. This can lead to a false sense that the winter months will be tame, which is far from the truth.
The farmer’s almanac predictions confirm the suspicion that winter could be a harsh once. Winter 2010-2011 produced one of the stronger La Ninas on record. The National Weather Service in Kansas City shows that it was 9th snowiest winter in 122 years with 36.9 inches of snow. The normal seasonal snowfall is 18.8 inches. Winter 2009-2010 was the 4th snowiest on record, with 44.2 inches of snow. With a recent pattern of snowy winters and favorable climate for strong storms, another seasonal snowfall in the top 10 all time is looking possible.
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