It was a beautiful sunny day to end the last day of Meteorological Winter(we meteorologists like to use the full months of December, January, and February to denote the season); the only problem was that we had Arctic air on tip of us so instead of an average high at Philly International of 47 we were 21 degrees below average(26). This was after a low of 10(which was one off the record low of 9 set back in 1934!).
Overnight with high pressure still on top of us and a clear sky lows will once again dip around the lower teens(the record at the airport is 9 set back in 1980). After a cold start we'll rebound to the lower 40s with sunshine giving way to clouds in the afternoon ahead of another Arctic front. The other variable is the upper level low that's currently off of the Pacific coast; its track as well as what precipitation will fall(whether it's snow, sleet, or rain) is yet to be seen because we need more data ingestion once the low comes onshore Saturday.
Yes, I know that will leave less than 48 hours before the event, but how it evolves is CRUCIAL as to what falls, its duration, and how much snowfall we get. While others have already put out their "first guess" I am holding off until at least Saturday once we get more guidance coming in; I personally feel that making multiple changes to a forecast begins to discredit a meteorologist as the public can get pretty confused(if they see older updates, etc.). It's not a sign of me "being scared" nor being conservative; I'd rather strive for accuracy rather than being first.
With that said, stay tuned all weekend long and be sure to look for updates on my weather page at www.scottderekwx.com/forecast.html.