It's becoming obvious that Israel is looking for something besides peace. Perhaps they see this as their chance to gain a deep leverage on the Obama administration with a war of attrition. They are playing the good cop and bad cop game in the peace process. Netanyahu yells for more settlements. Then somebody else who is interested in politics yells "stop building".
Meanwhile they have their little busy bees working behind the scenes to obstruct legislation in Congress.
While Palestine and Middle East leaders sense something is amiss. Feeling an opportunity is being wasted. I don't think a peace deal is near. Not in the true sense of the word. It's all a "charade". Designed to placate political interests. Some hands get greased and then some pictures are taken.
Netanyahu making peace with the Obama administration is not the same as making peace with Palestine. Which is not the Obama administration's fault. Israel usually wiggles its way out of making peace with Palestine for all sorts of legitimate reasons. The truth is they don't want to share the land. Not immediately anyway. They can reverse anything done this go around in a heart beat with a new President.
The only good thing I can see that has come out of this is the transparency. The internet and modern media has allowed Middle East countries to see for the first time how the whole game is played. Instead of guns and ammunition. They should be investing in more western based media, Think Tanks, journalism, and lobbyists in the United States. That would give any U.S. brokered peace a lot more to work with.
Is this the last peace deal? In all honesty probably not. But I do think they will be a lot smoother from here on out. Why do I think there will be more.
- It's fun for Arabs
- A chance to make fast money for leaders that are interested in that
- Israel gets to showcase their ties with the United States
- Some Arab countries in Middle East will probably be a little disgruntled with any outcome. Probably not for the obvious reasons.
Sure, Netanyahu will act like he's beaten. The truth is he has managed to quite possibly delay a "real peace deal" for a number of years. Which will be viewed as a win by many of his conservative backers. Not only that. But he got the United States to leverage getting a number of Middle East countries to jump right in line with thoughts of possible peace deals before the Palestine situation was handled. Using the midterms as leverage.
Now the Obama administration just wants to be done with Palestine for the most part. Netanyahu will throw them that so they will feel safer come election time. Only a few middle east leaders such as Prince Turki in Saudi Arabia know what is really going on.
I think Netanyahu has won the Palestine issue. From the sounds of it he is getting a good deal. I guess Israel didn't want to throw away all the "hard work" they have done in the last few years. He's even set himself up to control up and coming Israeli politicians. A little softer delivery but it adds up to about the same thing. Israel has the power and Palestine doesn't.
Can Netanyahu run the table and get "great deals" with the rest of the Middle East. Depends on a number of factors. There's a long way to go for the rest of the Middle East.
Did Obama owe that to Jews in America? In terms of the smooth start. I think he did for the most part. It's also his natural way of doing things so it probably would have been the same anyway.
Is the "bill paid". Yes, Israel has a good base to get started turning things around internationally. They will need more help but I don't think it's fair for the United States to be side saddled with that just because they can. I think Netanyahu got a lot out of this. When this process first started he was "out of control" for the most part. He was like a mad boar looking to gore anyone that got in his way. You have to give him credit. He went through the fire. Now Livni seems out of control compared to him.
Notes: Is the U.S. prepared to act militarily against Iran? The military card falls on Israel at this point. That would open up a big can of worms that could take years to clean up. Not to mention the awful blowback and international condemnation. The chances of Israel acting are slim and none. Israel would much rather control Iran's modernization attempts by pressuring the West every so often.
The West really just asks that Israel make it look good. Then Israel helps control and stabilize a large part of the Middle East in effect. Vast amounts of energy resources. Whether that's real or imagined.
The big question. Is Israel ready to stop playing this game? Move on to more advanced forms of diplomacy. Looking at their diplomatic leadership and what it amounts to. I would think they would be in a hurry to get out of this game. After Netanyahu there are very few Israeli leaders that can play it. As far as I can see. They really need a long term diplomatic deal with the United States and the Obama administration. This is new territory for them.
So that is where Arabs in the Middle east have an advantage. Israel might have a good economy and good western relations. But they are running on empty in terms of leadership that fit the current geopolitical dynamics. It roughly parallels the Republican party in the U.S.. They are just a few years behind. Arab leaders don't have to push them out. Their own citizens and leaders will do the work eventually. Netanyahu could be seeing things differently anyway. Every now and then Middle east leaders will bring up some of Israel's shortcomings in the international arena.
So what should Arab countries do? Try to keep the Likud party and Lieberman's party in office as long as you can. Once they get out they might not get back in for awhile. This is bigger than the settlers. The settlers are the best card Palestine and the Middle East have right now from a diplomatic stand point. Why get rid of it. Let them keep building until Likud or some other right wing party in Israel stops it by themselves. Mention it to the media every so often to keep the leverage in public arena.
At the end Israel will be begging to compromise. That's how you win a jackpot. You have to know how to build the pot. That's how you change the geopolitical dynamics. It's also how you get true regional power. Instead of relying on the United States to do the impossible. Who can you use as a Litmus test? Keep track of Danny Dayan, the settler leader. If he starts wiggling even a little to the left then he's feeling something politically from inside Israel.
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