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Is Rick Nolan in trouble?

This article certainly isn't the type of news the Nolan for Congress campaign wanted to hear:

National Democrats are calling in reinforcements for U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan’s re-election campaign in the Eighth Congressional District. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added Nolan to its Frontline program — a support system for House Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents.

Those last 5 words frighten Nolan: House Democrats' most vulnerable incumbents. Stewart Mills has raised more money than Nolan in each of the last 3 quarters. In the quarter that just finished, Mills raised $55,000 more than Nolan, finishing with $338,000 compared with Nolan's $283,000.

Mills is making this a highly competitive race because he's well-informed on the issues, he's well-liked thanks to his family's business and because he's a charismatic candidate.

The Rothenberg Political Report and Cook Political Report rate Nolan as a slight favorite to win re-election.

That's been their rating almost from the outset. Obviously, the DCCC's polling shows this race tightening to the point that they're committing to throwing additional resources into this race.

This isn't what the DCCC needs. This also indicates that they won't retake the House this election. Ms. Pelosi can say what she wants to fire up the troops but the reality is that retaking the majority requires playing on offense. Defending a Democrat incumbent's seat isn't playing offense.

Potentially, this has ramifications for other races, specifically the gubernatorial race and the US Senate race. If Mills wins this race, that means Gov. Dayton and Sen. Franken would have to win lots of votes from people who voted for Stewart Mills.

Political pundits will tell you that it's tough to win ticket-splitting votes. This year, it'll be that much more difficult because the issues that are hurting Nolan are the ones that are hurting Gov. Dayton and Sen. Franken. Specifically, Obamacare and mining are hurting all 3 candidates, with mining being the subject that's hurting Gov. Dayton and Rick Nolan the most on Minnesota's Iron Range.

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