Let’s be clear, Intercept Pharmaceuticals is not an investment for the faint of heart. In recent weeks the price per share of ICPT went from 260 to 445 back down to 260 and it’s about that PPS right now.
Even before the current momentum stock meltdown the price of ICPT came down precipitously. But a funny thing happened on the way in here. Despite today’s continued carnage, ICPT ended in the green. That should tell you something right there.
Not only that but today the company announced results from a preclinical study demonstrating the potential protective effects of the Company's lead product candidate obeticholic acid (OCA) in an experimental model of liver disease. Instead of going all technical on you and risk getting confused myself in the process, what happened was there was an experiment involving 12 rats who had bacteria in mesenteric lymph nodes related to liver cirrhosis. 6 of the rats were given OCA or the Intercept drug and 6 were not. All 6 of the rats who didn’t get the goods developed an abdominal infection. In contrast all 6 rats receiving OCA treatment experienced significant reduction of bacteria in mesenteric lymph nodes and all but one of these same rats didn’t get an bacterial infection in the abdominal cavity.
Okay so what does that mean as far as quickly doubling your bet on ICPT? It means that it’s looking better and better that OCA will be shown to halt or reverse the progression of fibrosis. And as the vice-president of the United States famously said, this is a big F-ing deal!
It should be noted that OCA is not Intercept’s only dog in the fight against liver disease. But for now, the test will be what the success is for OCA in something called NASH. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or NASH is a common liver disease. It looks like alcoholic liver disease, but occurs in people who drink little or no alcohol.
But listen, if Intercept Pharmaceuticals meets primary outcomes and there’s proof of slowing or reversing of fibrosis then your double will be more like a triple. We’ll all know by November of 2014 and of course there's no guarantees or the stock price would already be $800.
But in the meantime, you’d need to hit Vegas for a more exciting chance at rolling 7’s, in my opinion.
Happy investing I mean gambling!