Millions of Americans are anxious to find out the results of the Iowa caucuses, which are set to be reported on late Tuesday evening.
It is not just that the Iowa caucuses will take a thinning shears to the GOP field, which is certainly in need of some trimming. But it is also an opportunity to delve more deeply into news of greater political import than has been the case thus far.
Iowans love going up first in the electoral sport of ours and have done so since 1972. The Hawkeye State maintains its place at the head of the presidential primary line courtesy of a state law, which requires that Iowa’s caucuses take place before any other states engage.
Securing such a position is not merely about some sort of collective ego or possessing bragging rights should the eventual chosen leader of the free world be a caucus winner. The campaign staff and media personnel that swarm the state provide a significant lift to the local economy.
Political science wizards claim that candidates who place in the top three in Iowa have a “ticket” to win the nomination. However, this is not always the case. Fred Thompson achieved a third place finish in the caucuses but ended up dropping out of the campaign. Last presidential election cycle Mike Huckabee won Iowa with heavy support from evangelicals, but John McCain snagged the GOP nomination without having taken first, second, or third place in Iowa, but instead having landed at fourth.
The political demographics of the Iowa caucuses are a reflection of what establishment elitists typically refer to as “flyover country.” Likely caucus partakers describe themselves as “conservative” to the tune of 88 percent, and almost two-thirds are self-described evangelicals.
The media are busily reporting on all of the ups and downs and ins and outs of the various polls. Still, despite the countless debates, numerous town halls meetings, and deluge of political advertisements, here we are on the eve of the main event and there is apparently no clear favorite.
In a poll by the Des Moines Register newspaper, which was released on Dec. 31, 2011, forty-one percent of survey participants indicated that they could change their minds prior to their final vote.
“It is a wide open race,” Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, told Fox News Sunday. “Any of the candidates potentially could win here.”
Participants in the Iowa caucuses are understandably puzzled. The media coverage that has led up to the caucuses has basically put forth two possible modes of selecting the person who will be taking on President Obama in the fall, i.e., voting for the solid conservative, ideologically speaking, or selecting the most electable candidate in a general election match-up against an incumbent president.
The question that will be answered when the caucus results are known is whether Iowans perceive a conservative candidate and an electable candidate as being one and the same.
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