Like a watched pot that refuses to boil Invest 93L is still nothing but a tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic. In fact, the National Hurricane Center now gives it a 50-50 chance of turning into some sort of tropical cyclone, down from 80% earlier in the week. According to the NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion is still showing signs of getting better organized, but “lacks any significant deep convection.”
Weather Underground founder Dr. Jeff Masters says in his Wednesday morning blog entry that high wind shear is the main reason 93L is still just a tropical wave. However, he also notes that forecasters expect the wind shear to ease off Wednesday night. “With the atmosphere around 93L reasonably moist, this may allow the system to become a tropical depression as early as the 11 pm EDT Wednesday NHC advisory. Thursday morning is probably a more likely time for classification as a TD, though.”
Whether 93L will strengthen into some sort of cyclone is an open question, but Masters says the course projections from the major computer models are a little more firm. All of the models predict that the disturbance will continue west-northwest at 13 - 19 mph for the next four days. The UKMET and the European models offer the fastest solution, predicting that the disturbance will arrive in the northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening.”
So far, Invest 93L has been a whole lotta nothin' for hurricane forecasters and weather geeks, but that's good news for coastal residents who have learned to keep wary eye on tropical weather forecasts. Despite the lack of any immediate threat to any land mass, it's still important for everyone in potential target areas to monitor the tropical weather forecast.