The State’s third largest bloc of registered voters’ may make the difference this year.

Last week Cheryl Long sat transfixed to her television set as she concentrated on the two gubernatorial debates that took place – one on WJZ 13, the other on MPT. The first time voter wanted to take this opportunity to study the candidates whom she might vote for in the upcoming general election. However the first question she asked me, phone ringing almost immediately following the debates was, “Are they the only two candidates I can vote for as Governor?”

The answer of course is “no”. Unfortunately the sponsors of the debates felt comfortable in having such an informative discussion without the third party candidates that will also be on this year’s ballot for Governor. Maria Allwine (Green party), Eric Knowles (Constitution party) and Susan Gaztanaga (Libertarian party) all three represent constituencies that are not necessary affiliated with the traditional political parties – known as Democrats and Republicans. Also left off this list is the third-most leading class of registered voters in the State of Maryland – Unaffiliated, more commonly known as Independents.  

Ms. Long, belonging to this rapidly growing base of voters, has chosen not to register as either a Democrat or a Republican because she says “both parties have lost their way and neither actually represents the ideals and values of her or her family!” An African-American woman not yet in her thirties feels as though while current President Barack Obama appeals to her interests domestically, especially proud of the fact of having America’s first black President, he seems to be disconnected with her fiscal views. This seems to be a growing concern amongst others who are, at a rate of almost 3 to 1, registering Independent here in the City of Baltimore.

Independent voters are slowly becoming the State’s most powerful voting bloc, well behind Democrats yet barely trailing Republicans. In fact Independents have more registered voters in the City of Baltimore than do Republicans and are close to outpacing them in Montgomery County (behind by only 821 voters). As Independent voters in this state equal a little more than a half-a-million registered, the question still remains as to how many will actually turnout to vote this fall and to which party’s candidate they shall pull the lever for?

Comparing the voter registration data of the Big 5 (Montgomery, Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Prince George’s counties, along with Baltimore City) here in Maryland, along with the strong bench players of Howard and Harford counties, you can see that Independents are positioned to determine the outcome of who carries each of these jurisdictions. One can only assume that the campaign generals in the O’Malley and Ehrlich camps are trying to figure out how to reach these voters and gain their support come November 2.

While Republicans seem to have been energized by the new Tea Party insurgence, Democrats have seemingly yet to have figured out how to ensure a great turnout this fall. Despite bringing the ever-popular President Obama out to a rally at a college campus earlier this month, Democrats seem flustered and unsure on an effective strategy in order to turn out their base. “Party loyalists seem less concerned about voting for another four years of an administration that has made their lives unmanageable due to taxes, furloughs and lay-offs,” says Democratic activist C.D. Witherspoon. Asked what part Independents may play in the upcoming elections and he states that “Democrats need to worry more about those in their party who are strongly considering switching parties to unaffiliated, based on their recent ineffectiveness and look more at who those folk may be voting for come November 2.”    

Yet Independent voters are strange political foes to figure out, certainly not to be taken for granted. Our research shows that most Independents tend to be more socially liberal yet fiscally conservative, while having a strong conservative view on foreign policy yet more liberal on domestic issues. However with an election between two former one-term governors, both pointing to the other as being the weakest link when it comes to the economic policies of this state, political pundits alike cannot really get a fix on just who they may turn out to vote for – if they turn out at all.

Political commentator and registered Independent Catalina Byrd believes Independents will have an unintended yet consequential impact on the upcoming elections. “Neither major candidate, O’Malley or Ehrlich, can figure out the make-up of this class of voters as they were locked out of the Primary elections, giving them an unknown predictability as to how many [Independents] are conservative compared to those who may be more liberal; thereby leaving their vote ripe for the picking.”

Ms. Byrd’s statement brings up an interesting point that has been frequently discussed on multiple political talk-shows and website threads; should Maryland open up its primary elections to those registered Independent? This state remains one of about fourteen other states that has closed primaries, while others have a more open system allowing unaffiliated voters’ to vote in either of the major party’s primaries, by open primaries or semi-open primaries known as the pick-a-party primary process. However there is a process known as semi-closed primaries which would still allow independents to participate in the process yet would have them declare which party’s ballot they intend to vote for. Either way getting this growing bloc of voters more involved in the democratic process makes perfect electoral sense and shall prove to be beneficial to both major parties and their leadership giving them a glimpse of voter turnout and allowing them to see exactly which way the Independent electorate may be leaning.

Whatever the case may be, this year’s upcoming general election has many wondering just how effective each party’s get-out-the-vote efforts shall be when it comes to which candidate will win re-election. As Governor O’Malley enjoys the benefit of being the incumbent he also has to deal with the fact of suffering through one of the worst economic storms this state and nation has seen in decades. Former governor Ehrlich may capitalize off the tax and spend Democrats’ actions regarding the tax package of 2007 – when they raised Maryland taxes $1.4-billion – however he suffers the reality of trying to become commander and chief of one of the most liberal and Democratically controlled states in the region. With all things being equal I would have to analyze this election to the degree in which the Independent voter chooses to participate and to which candidate they see as the savior of a State in peril.

One thing remains clear, as Ms. Long so eagerly found out, that their certainly is more to politics than that of just the true-blue Dems and/or the dead-red Republicans; viable alternatives do exist and before long the third party option will be stronger a challenge than most anticipate.

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