Now that Arthur has been officially named a tropical storm this morning, the concern shifted to holiday plans later this week. It is easy to take ownership of a tropical system on the east coast, much like many hear the word derecho and fear a repeat of the June 29, 2012 event. Both have low odds for us in Maryland.
One thing to keep in mind is the eastern US coastline. North Carolina sticks out to the east helping to direct storms that way. Usually storms stay offshore after passing the Outer Banks when on a trip northward. It appears this will be the case this week as well. However not good news for OBX expecting a category 1 hurricane Friday morning.
The one caveat will by my theory of atmospheric memory. There was a hot spot between Virginia Beach and Ocean City- roughly 50-100 miles offshore this winter. If that is still present (invisible), that could help Arthur pull a little farther north, but I still see this with little problem.
The Swell Model* does show 40 foot waves near the center of Arthur on Friday, but 100+ miles southeast of Ocean City. Show the storm come closer/hug the coast, the worst waves should still stay offshore.
Forecast maps can be found in the slide show.
- A cold front will pump up the heat, humidity, and southerly winds fort a few days. THAT is what you will feel much of the week. Not Arthur.
- Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are possible across central Maryland (PA and VA as well)- from the Cold Front! No impact from Arthur on the weather inland.
- The southerly wind and a push of water ahead of Arthur could raise water level son the Chesapeake Bay a few feet, which could lead to some shoreline flooding, but NOT like Isabel.
- Winds will be brisk all week.
- The closest pass of Arthur (as it appears now) will be Friday morning to early afternoon.
- Strong waves and rip currents may chase most people off out of the water.
- The highest surf on Friday should be 6-10 feet high.
- Winds could exceed tropical storm intensity (40 mph) but likely squeezed between the cold front and Arthur offshore.
- The strongest part of a tropical cyclone is on the right side with forward motion. That means a northward moving storm has the fastest winds and most rain on the east side, well off the coast.
- A land falling tropical cyclone can produce isolated tornadoes. The most likely threat will be eastern North Carolina. But with the strong cold front interacting with Arthur, there may be some enhanced awareness for something to spin up Thursday into Friday morning.
- Arthur will push warmer water up north, so there is a plus for the temperatures.
This weekend: After the front and Arthur move offshore, an improvement will be here. Some of the nicest weather is AFTER a tropical system passes.
Superstorm Sandy Related Articles:
Also keep up to date via my Social Media Networks:
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Sign up for email alerts to my articles for Baltimore Weather Examiner
Other Articles you might enjoy:
*Kid Weather App:
Learn more cool things like this about weather. See the app I made with my son who is now in 1st grade. We have over 400 items of trivia plus live weather and forecasts for kids. See more and links for your device at kidweatherapp.com