President Obama may learn a hard political lesson that could make him a one term president, if he decides to confront Immigration Reform.
Immigration reform is a policy discussion that many political advisors fear will cause their poll number to start collapsing while only pushing any moderates in each party and losing independents who filling in the margins in elections.
Just the mention of off Immigration Reform pisses of key stakeholders in the business sector here in Los Angeles at a time when the stock markets are still rattled. The RNC and local California Republicans will pounce on this and attempt to link California's staggering 10.1 percent unemployment to boarder security and distrbute talking points in local congressional races zeroing in on undocumented workers in in direct mail pieces and pointing out the President's strong ties to SEIU California.
If President Obama decides to not not waste valuable political capitoal standing his ground on Immigration Reform, he will be painted as a flip-flopper by Republicans and his presidency will face a showdown with a angery chorus of interest groups in the Hispanic Constituency in the LA area who backed him in the pameries against Hillary Clinton dispite strong ties to the Clintons.
In Washington, the Immigration debate represents rawbone politics.
Republican senior strategist think is capable of really helping them seizing back control of Washington in the mid-terms.
In Los Angeles, local political consultant know grassroots fundraising is only succesful by building strong coalitions in Latino Outreach who are pivotal gatekeepers to any candidate trying to carry California.
Followers of the 2008 primaries, will remeber that at one point among Hispanic voters, Hillary Clinton lead the primary field by 46 points on a platform stressing "humane immigration reform." and won important staes like California, New Mexico, and Nevada as Obama struggled to convinced Latino voters he was relyable.
Bottomline politically is there is no way President Obama can make lemonade here in Los Angeles if he disappoints passionate Immigration activists who as you read this are planning more May Day rallies to heat the political climate. ?
As the Obama White House puts together a Communications strategy to outline their Immigration Policy, they need only to set up a conference call with ex-Bush White House Director of Political Affairs, Ken Mehlman who saw President Bush attacked by his own base as his urges to Congress to pass his Immigration Reform turned into the ultimate wedge issues that ultimately severely hurt the Republican 2008 Presidential Candidate, John Mccain among younger latino voters here in LA and across the country.
One thing is certain here in LA and in Washington, Republican political consultants are busy setting up a War Room to responded aggressively to the Obama Admistration Immigration Policy with polling information and public opinion data indicating that the vast majority of voters still do not support Immigration reform.