The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been pretty run-of-the mill so far, but that may not last.
The National Hurricane Center database shows that 2013 has had five named storms through August 20 compared to a long-term average YTD of four named storms. Perhaps the most interesting statistic is the lack of hurricanes thus far in 2013. All five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year have been tropical storms.
The latest NOAA hurricane outlook released in early August forecasts:
>>> 13 to 19 total named storms
>>> 6 to 9 hurricanes
>>> 3 to 5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
These numbers compare to a seasonal average of 12 named storms, six of which are hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Factors leading to the forecast for an active season include warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures and low wind shear over the tropics. A late start to hurricane formation like we're seeing this year is often replaced by a surge of activity in early September as sea waters reach their peak temperature and easterly waves become more active.
Texas gets most of its significant hurricanes from late August through mid September, such as "Ike" on September 11-12, 2008 - one of the most expensive hurricanes to ever hit the Lone Star State. So the lack of hurricanes so far is interesting, but it really doesn't offer any great guarantee against Texas getting one later in the season.
Weather records show the hurricane threat to Texas diminishes rapidly in early October; most October-November storms affect the central Gulf eastward to Florida.