Hurricane Season 2009 update- fewer storms predicted

Visible Satellite Loop as Hurricane Katrina makes landfall on August 29, 2005

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The 2009 Hurricane Season is off to a very slow start.  In a matter of fact, this is the latest start to the hurricane season this decade.

Before 2009, the latest start was on August 4, 2000, with the development of tropical storm Alberto.

The Colorado State University storm research team, led by  Hurricane Researcher William Gray, have cut their forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. 

The team now anticipates 10 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin through the remainder of the hurricane season.

Four of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those four, two are expected to develop into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, which called for a 50% chance of a near-normal season with 9 to 14 named storms and 4 to 7 hurricanes will release a update on August 6th.

NOAA is expected to lower their number of storms as well for this hurricane season.

So why are the forecasts being scaled back?

El Nino, which has historically been known for disrupting the hurricane season,  has been steadily developing in the Pacific over the past few months. 

El Nino conditions increase the vertical wind shear (stronger winds aloft than near the surface) over the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic during the season, preventing storms from developing or intensifying.

(El Nino loop development )

In 1997, during the last intense El Nino, only 7 named storms formed, with 3 becoming hurricanes.  One major hurricane was recorded during the 1997 Hurricane Season.

(2 in July and 1 in September)

Despite the expected decrease in tropical activity, coastal residents should remain on guard, as the peak of hurricane season is still ahead. (peak around September 10th)

In Mississippi, major hurricane strikes have been more common during the latter half of August and in September.

In a matter of fact, out of 9 total major hurricanes to impact the state, (since 1851) 8 have occurred over this 2 month period, including the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. and in Mississippi's history, Hurricanes Camille and Katrina.

(Hurricane Camille-August 17th) and (Hurricane Katrina-August 29th)