Hurricane Season 2009 projected to be less active

 

 After several years of above average tropical activity, consensus has grown that this hurricane season will be less active than previous years.

Early Hurricane Season 2009 forecasts, called for 11-14 tropical systems, which is around average and or just above, compared to the long term trends.

Many hurricane forecasters have decreased their number of named storms, and even calling for a below average hurricane season.

National Atmospheric Oceanic Adiministration is calling for a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

Their forecast is based on percentages: 50% near normal season, 25% above normal season, 25% below normal season.

NOAA  Forecasters: 70 percent chance of having 9-14 named storms, of which 4-7 could become hurricanes, including 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5). (NOAA Full Report)

 Accuweather's Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster, Joe Bastardi says:

As we predicted in our early season forecast, we're anticipating a major reduction in the number of overall storms compared to last year. Levels may be as low as 2006 or perhaps lower. However, we expect three storms to deal at least tropical-storm-force winds to the U.S. coast, two of which could be hurricanes, and perhaps one major hurricane.

Accuweather was previously calling for 13 named storms (8 hurricanes, 5 major)

They have decreased that number to 10 named storms. (6 hurricanes, 2 major)

Joe Bastardi adds: 

Anywhere along the United States coast is susceptible to an impact, but the Texas coast early in the season and East Coast from the Carolinas northward during the heart of the season are areas that have us worried.

Average Hurricane Season:

Long-term Average 1950-2008

*Named*               *Hurricanes*              *Major*

11                                  6                                2/3

Since 1995-2008 Average:

15                                  8                                4

Excluding 2005 (28 named storms) Record Year (Average)

13                                   7                               3/4

North Carolina State University Professor, Lian Xie, said last month that work by his team,

shows a slightly less active season than last year's.

Xie said there should be 11 to 14 named storms during the 2009 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Six to eight storms may become hurricanes.

His team estimated a 45 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the coast of the southeastern U.S., and a 40 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast.

Xie's prediction is in line with forecasters at Colorado State University. They estimated 11 named storms would develop, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

 

Colorado State University's Hurricane Forecast Team reduced their forecast from the early December prediction of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

So why the overall decrease?

A weak El Nino pattern of warm water in the Pacific Ocean is expected to create wind shear, which would tend to disrupt tropical development, leading to less tropical activity.

Everyone along the Altantic and Gulf Coasts should be preparing for the upcoming hurricane season.

As with any season, the need to prepare for the possibility of a storm striking near you is essential.

There were 16 named tropical storms in the 2008 Hurricane Season including eight hurricanes, of which five were considered major.

For more info: Hurricane Preparedness Week   El Nino Decreases Tropical Activity