How will Israel bomb Iran?

There are plenty of people predicting that Israeli will launch a preemptive attack on Iran’s capacity to produce a nuclear weapon. There are few who explain how Israel might do this. This article explores how Israel might attack Iran’s capacity to make a nuke.

Israel has twice before destroyed an enemy’s nuclear reactor, both times were by attacks from the air . The first one was the daring 1981 raid on Iraq’s Osirak reactor. Violating Jordanian and Saudi Arabian air space, Israeli fighters, fitted with range extending fuel tanks, flew to the outer limits of their extended range, and, with an adroitly executed bombing maneuver, destroyed the Iraqi reactor.

Israel was not the first to attack Iraq’s Osirak reactor. Iran bombed it too, but missed. Iran has no principled objection to a preventative attack on an enemy’s capacity to build a nuke.

The second Israeli raid had been shrouded in mystery. The target of that second raid was a North Korean construction site in Syria, near the Turkish border. Without warning, Israeli jets suddenly appeared out of nowhere. After destroying the target, the planes returned to nowhere, without ever activating any of Syria’s air defenses.

The target of that once mysterious raid was the construction site for a Syrian nuclear reactor. It is now known that the Israelis swooped into Syria not from nowhere, but from Turkey. It is also now known that Syrian air defenses were not activated because Israeli technicians had hacked Syrian radar and deactivate it.

An Israeli raid into Iran would be bold and daring, of course. In Israeli tradition, you would expect it to be tactically innovative too. However, there are important differences between an Israeli raid on Syria and Iraq on the one hand and an airstrike on Iran. If an Israeli raid on Iran were to succeed, it would need to be radically different from its two previous nuclear reactor air strikes.

The first important difference is distance. Although the Syrian and Iraqi targets were far away, Iran is even farther. There are 1,400 long miles between Tel Aviv and the Iranian border. These are 1,400 miles in which Israeli planes must remain undetected as they approach their target and another 1,400 miles that they must safely traverse on return, presumably in hot pursuit by some rather angry Iranians. They must make this long and difficult flight and adroitly execute a precision attack in a plane that has never before been used at such distances and, absent modification, a plane cannot fly such lengths without running out of fuel.

The second important difference is the targets. Syria and Iraq had one reactor, each, and both were above ground. Iran has multiple targets, and they are buried in hardened sites.

Israel attacked Osirak with one team of planes, flying in a tight radar confusing formation. Knocking out multiple hardened sites will require teams of planes with lots of bunker busting munitions. These are complications that make such an attack ever more daunting and dangerous.

It is audacious enough to send one team far away to destroy one above ground target. It is far beyond audacious to send many teams even farther away to destroy multiple hardened buried targets.

The third important difference is Israeli vulnerability.

Israeli security depends on air superiority. But, Iran has well-armed friends on Israel’s borders – Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Attacking far away Iran with teams of planes will compromise Israel’s air superiority, at least temporarily, assuming that they return home safely. Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas are sure to exploit the opportunity.

If Israel attacks Iran, how would they get there? What route would they take?

The most direct route from Israel is through Jordan, then Iraq, and then into Iran. But will Jordan give Israel over-flight rights? The answer is probably no, which is not unexpected. However, Jordan did not approve Israeli over flights when Osirak was attacked. Israel probably could fly over Jordan again without its permission in a raid on Iran. But, Iraq is another story.

The US controls Iraqi airspace, and it controls it well. Israel cannot enter Iraqi airspace without US approval, and the US is not approving it.

The second possible Israeli route to Iran is through Saudi Arabia. But, there are two challenges for this flight path. The first challenge is once again the distance issue. Flying through Saudi Arabia would be slightly longer than a direct flight, which already is way too long. The second problem is that Saudi Arabia does not like Israel. With a long history of supporting those want to destroy the Jewish state, why would Saudi Arabia allow Israel to enter their airspace to attack Iran?

As it turns out, the Saudis have already granted Israel over flight rights. In fact, reports are that the Saudis are practicing standing down so that they do not accidently scramble their jets and engage the Israelis when Israeli planes are passing overhead. Moreover, there are reports that the Saudis have allowed Israel use of the Saudi airbase in Tabuk to attack Iran.

Oil rich Saudi Arabia has a paucity of choices regarding Iran. Although Israel is a Saudi enemy, the Iranians threaten it. An Iran with a nuke is a more immediate existential threat to Saudi Arabia than to Israel. If US led sanctions fail and the US does not exercise a military option, then the enemy of Saudi Arabia’s foe, Israel, will become the Saudis best friend forever, even if Israel is its foe too.

Another possible Israeli route into Iran is through Turkey. Once Israel’s regional ally, Turkey borders Iran. At one time, Israeli fighters regularly practiced in Turkish airspace. There was speculation that Israel’s 2007 raid on the Syrian nuclear reactor was a practice run for a raid on Iran. Presumably, just as Israel entered Syria through Turkey, it would enter Iran through Turkey too. However, a raid through Turkey is unlikely at this time. Although Israel and Turkey were once regional allies, that relationship has foundered. Last June, Turkey terminated Israeli military over-flight rights.

In August 2008, a revanchist Russia invaded its newly independent neighbor, Georgia. Militarily superior, mighty Russia vanquished Georgia and destroyed their army within less than a week. Overrunning a defenseless Georgia, the Russians found Israelis, which was not all that surprising. They also found documents, one of which was an agreement allowing Israel to use Georgian bases for a raid on Iran.

Georgia does not border Iran, but it is so much closer than flying from Tel Aviv. Nonetheless, Israel must go through Turkey, Armenia, or Azerbaijan to bomb Iran from Georgia. But, Turkey is not likely to green light an Israeli intrusion into their airspace at this time. Friendly with Syria and uncomfortable with Israel, Armenia is not likely to approve of it either. But Azerbaijan is different.

Ethnically Turks and religiously Shiite Muslims, Azerbaijan has very good relations with Israel. Among other things, Azerbaijan manufactures Israeli drones, a pilotless aircraft used for surveillance and attack. Not only is Azerbaijan likely to approve Israeli use of their airspace, but there is even a possibility that they will also be a base of operation. Iran’s media reported last June that the Iranian military mobilized in anticipation of a joint US/Israel operation based in Azerbaijan.

Another possible Israeli attack route is through Iran’s other northern neighbor, Turkmenistan.

Turkmenistan is a large Central Asian nation along the Caspian Sea. Mostly, it is desert, but it has enormous deposits of natural gas. A former Soviet republic, its post independence political leadership has been somewhat eccentric, and always quite authoritarian. Although it has enjoyed diplomatic relations with Israel since independence in 1990, there has not been an Israeli embassy in Ashgabat, the country’s capital, which is jut 32 kilometers from the Iranian border. Moreover, the country’s previous president, the Turkmenbashi, Saparmurat Niyazov, banned Jewish religious practices. Nonetheless, last year, an agreement was reached to open an Israeli embassy in Ashgabat. The ambassador that Israel nominated was Ruven Dinel. In 2006, Mr. Dinel was expelled from Russia after he was caught with classified Russian satellite photos. He is presumed to be an Israeli intelligence asset. Notwithstanding, Turkmenistan is an unlikely base for Israeli operations against Iran, however, it remains within the realm of possibilities.

The last possible base of for an Israeli raid is in Iraqi Kurdistan. It is long been rumored that Israel is aiding the Kurds in exchange for access to Iran. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that Israel will strike Iran from a Kurdish base. If there are Israeli assets in Kurdistan, they are likely to be for the purposes of intelligence and logistics only.

An attack on Iranian nuclear assets will change the course of history. There will be reprisals. In all likelihood, there will be many people killed and a huge amount of economic disruption. One important target of Iranian reprisals will be Western oil interests in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea.

Last April, Israel’s former Deputy Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ephraim Sneh predicted that Israel would raid Iran after US Congressional elections in November 2010. Let us hope that the necessity for such a raid can and will be averted.