Last week's action was more of the same old - new highs in the markets ( one out of every four days this year is a record high); no visible corrections. The Holidays are officially underway now and the Technical Society is having its annual Christmas party next week.
The TSAA-SF Annual Round-Up at Alfred's Steakhouse is right around the corner. Have you registered yet???
Renown technical analysts, money managers and advisors will present their 2014 market outlooks while you dine with friends. What better way to celebrate the Holidays?
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
1:00pm - 3:30pm
659 Merchant Street
San Francisco, CA
Remember, seating is limited and space is running out, so don't hesitate. Register now!!!
This year's impressive guest speaker list includes the following.
- Garrett Jones, long-wave cycle expert
- Richard Farkas, ETF Expert and Past MTA Chapter Chair
- Rick Leonhardt, Financial Advisor and Portfolio Manager
- T.J. Connelly, Hedge Fund Consultant
Cost is only $59 for TSAA-SF members. I hope to see you there!
Garret Jones, who studied under Bob Farrell at Merrill Lynch - along with Bob Prechter, Gail Dudack, Arch Crawford, etc., will have a chance to explain why the market did not go into its death spiral in July , as he predicted on June 8 at the Bloomberg talk on the Embarcadero. His cycle work predicted the 40-year crash (from 1974 low) as well as the 1929-1966 cycle.
More reliable are the 13-year lesser cycles: '74-87; '87-00; '94-07; '00-13?
Along with the new highs of last week (only 1 point on the S&P500) were excesses in the Sentiment Indicators I track on:
Monthly figures finally came in for October in the ETF flows - huge increases into equity and Int'l funds with no change in bonds. Also a monthly figure - record Margin Interest, now at $412B.
Strangely, mutual fund MMFs (money markets) reversed to a $15B increase - from a $5B decrease the prior week. Insider selling and Bullish % remain at highs levels. One note about Insider selling: Mark Hulbert wrote in a column recently that the only meaningful Insider trading is by Officers, Directors, etc. - NOT the 10%+ stock owners who are not privy to the best info. This is probably why this Indicator is not one of the best to follow. The figure I track is from the WSJ - a combination of the two classes.
Finally, the newsletter survey from wire houses - Bulls vs. Bears, saw a new recent low of 14.4 for the Bears. Nasdaq new highs v. lows hit nearly 10:1 as well.
The Holiday season is a good time to reminisce about the good old days: I remember clinking scotch glasses with Art Kangas - PBS's Paul Kangas's brother in San Diego- in the 1980s ( he sounded just like Paul); Paul's partner at NBR (Nightly Business Report) who remains there today, Susie Gharib, stood by my desk while waiting to interview Chuck Schwab in the '90s. Bill Griffeth and Susan (McMahon) Herrera were at FNN before leaving for CNBC. Most disturbing, however, was reading the fine print over the weekend that Maria Bartiromo had left CNBC after decades of hard service, with little or no fanfare. Kind of like Mike Santoli sliding off the Barron's payroll.
Which leads me to an exceptionally accurate, yet un-holiday like piece from Tom Donlan , the brilliant Editor of Barron's, before leaving on vacation - excerpts are from his midweek column:
"Sometimes the truth hurts. And as a card-carrying member of MSM -- the Mainstream Media -- the truth, and what is passed off as such, is even more obvious than to the non-professional.
Case in point is the absurdity noted by the acerbic blog, Zerohedge.com, which took to task various MSM outlets Wednesday for attributing market moves to both putatively strong and weak economic data ("It's Bizarro Headline 'Explanation' Day").
Editors, with little market experience, demand reporters, with even less, to construct neat, ex post explanations for whatever happens in the markets on any particular day. It is especially touching that, for instance, NPR continues to ring up some nice chaps who provide such service to the press but who, from my personal experience, provide no insight whatsoever to anybody with any knowledge of what's actually going on. I know this because one such source would eagerly pump me for market insights when we'd get together.
To assert that the action of the markets can be reduced to a Newtonian linearity akin to billiard balls striking one another is astounding to anyone who has ever dealt with the actors who comprise markets.