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Hillary Clinton must overcome overconfidence to win presidential nomination

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Is Hillary Clinton really a lock for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination? According to many Washington insiders, she will face opposition and it may be formidable, according to Time Magazine this week.

Clinton may not enter the race at the best time for Democrats. The president’s polling numbers are low and getting lower, Benghazi problems, her own record as secretary of state, etc. Will she be hindered by her own participation in the Obama administration?

There will be someone who does not consider 2016 a “Hillary coronation.” From newly elected liberal Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, it’s hard to imagine all the liberals to the left of Hillary sitting this next presidential election out. Running against Hillary in 2016 is the greatest growth opportunity in the Democratic Party.

Warren or Cuomo would be the hottest thing in American politics, at least for a brief amount of time. Would that candidate be able to cope with Hillary’s massive campaign war chest is the question.

Running would enable a poorer candidate to reap all the free publicity in a turtle vs. rabbit race. What politician with national aspirations wouldn't want such a prominent platform? If the message is one that vibrates through the Democratic Party, Hillary could be in real trouble simply from overexposure and the label of “unbeatable.”

Throughout history, the solid front-runner early has fallen during the long campaign. Names such as Al Gore, Edmund Muskie, Nelson Rockefeller, Thomas Dewey, etc. have ended up bulldozed down the road. Even Mitt Romney in 2012, with every organizational and fundraising advantage, barely beat Rick Santorum in the crucial Ohio primary.

What about the media? They will be bored to tears with the Democrats. No candidates to cover? No intrigue? The media hate a stale political narrative. The press is all for a challenger.

Hillary’s campaign will operate on the basis of sheer blunt political force and cold hard cash. She’s got the cash and the base to demolish even the most organized candidate. She never quit running when Obama beat her in the 2008 primaries. "It's my turn and this time, I mean it."

This time around there will be no one with the political skill of Barack Obama - certainly not Joe Biden. But some of the same factors that accounted for her vulnerability last time haven't gone away. She has a resume, but not accomplishments.

Hillary looked inevitable once before. The media jury is out as to if she can overcome overconfidence.

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