A significant winter storm is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The details are still sketchy with large differences in the model solutions which impact not only the placement of the heavier snow, but amounts as well.
A storm will track from the upper Mid West, southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon, then into the Mid Atlantic states on Wednesday. Once the storm reaches the Ohio Valley, it will intensify with a band of heavy snow possible north of the storm’s track.
Most of the models have trended northward which would place the heaviest snow across northern and central Ohio, east-southeast across the southwestern half of Pennsylvania. However, the European model tracks the storm about 100-150 miles south of this. While this model is somewhat of an outlier right now, it has performed well this season and cannot be discounted. The 12z European has shifted a bit north of its previous run, but it is still south of the other major models.
Currently, the HPC guidance favors the more northern track, and this seems reasonable, however confidence in this forecast is below average and a shift southward will still be possible.
It is still too early to be specific about amounts, however a significant snow fall with accumulations in excess of 6 inches will be possible just north of where the storm tracks. Near and south of the track a mix of rain and snow through at least a portion of the event will reduce total snowfall accumulations.
I will post additional updates as new information becomes available. Be sure to check back for future updates.
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