Raleigh Weather Discussion
Obviously the big story in the weather world right now is the massive blizzard about to hit parts of the Northeast. I may put out a snowfall forecast graphic later today, but I think someone in New England will get at least 3 feet of snow outside the mountains. New York City is right on the edge of a 1-2 footer or very little, while it appears Boston will certainly get hammered.
This storm is going to bring a round of moderate to heavy rain to the state tonight. Guidance is showing potentially 1-2 inches of rain for central and eastern NC, particularly the Triangle eastward. As the storm forms off the NC coast it will strengthen rapidly and eastern NC will likely be in a deformation band with strong lift and heavy rain.
The storm will lift out by tomorrow morning with cooler temps for the weekend. The next storm system will move in Sunday night and we could see significant rain from it as well with perhaps a couple of rounds of moderate to heavy rain from Sunday night through Tuesday evening. Another soaker could be on tap with mild temperatures.
Cooler temps will move in behind this storm with below normal temperatures for mid to late next week and the following weekend
National Extended Weather Discussion
The guidance in the longer range has come into better agreement in recent cycles on an overall cold pattern that will start developing after Valentine’s Day and may continue through the rest of February. The EPO is forecast to go significantly negative along with the AO, while the NAO is weakly negative. However a –PNA means that the cold air will likely spread out across the country and not just be concentrated in one area. The SE ridge may rear its head at times but it is unclear if it will be enough to warm the Southeast above normal and send the storm track into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic or weak enough for the cold air in the northern stream to suppress the storm track well to the south and bring wintry weather to the Southeast.
It is becoming clearer though that the met Winter may try to close with a bang, and the blizzard coming up tomorrow may be the kick off to an extent.