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Heavy rain potential for Dallas Wed-Fri

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The Dallas area will enjoy a rare mid-summer rainy spell Wed-Fri as a cold front and several upper-level troughs make for an unstable weather pattern over north Texas.

The front is being pushed southward by a cool Canadian air mass and this is quite rare for this time of year. The flow aloft will turn northwesterly in the wake of the front, and this will allow for the mid-level troughs to pass overhead.

A very moist air mass, the lift provided by the front (stalled to our south mid-week) and the troughs set the stage for a widespread rain event that may total several inches. It’s great news for Metroplex reservoirs in what’s normally one of the driest times of the year.

It's been a dry year for the Metroplex with 10.59" through July 14, almost exactly half of the YTD normal.

The temperature at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport reached 100 degrees for the first time in 2014 on July 13. Overall, the summer of 2014 has been quite mild with temperatures since June 1 less than one degree above normal.

The latest monthly El Nino advisory came out last week and it continues the projections from earlier this year, this is, for a high chance (80%) of an El Nino forming this fall. If this comes to pass it will be great news for the Metroplex and all of drought-parched Texas as El Nino weather is typified by above normal precipitation and cooler than average temperatures.

The latest projections show this to be a rather weak version of the event, so it makes forecasting the significance of the effect more difficult...time will tell.

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