Haslam won't act to bring about his own Waterloo

The Memphis Commercial Appeal's Richard Locker pointed out in a blog post from yesterday that Zach Wamp's attempt to say that Bill Haslam intends to propose an income tax if elected because his father, Jim Haslam, had supported an income tax is more than a bit disingenuous. Even if every member of the Haslam family has secret late-night fantasies about the ecstacies of income tax collection, Big Jim and Bill Haslam are nothing if not politically astute. It is among the most unlikely political scenarios that the next Governor, regardless of who he is or what party he is from, will move to enact an income tax in Tennessee.

The income tax is a very effective political tool, and most conservative political leaders and commentators-myself included-have been able to use the income tax and voters' fear of the same to defeat more liberal candidates running for the General Assembly. To be sure, there are plenty of more liberal members of the Legislature who favor introducing a regular income tax, but most of those people know that any bills they might introduce to that effect will die a slow and predictable death.

Voters' reaction the last time that there was a proposal to institute a State income tax was to isolate a formerly-popular Republican Governor, engage in protests at the Capitol that turned into near-riots, and significantly reduce the once-unstoppable Democratic majority in both Houses to the point that Republicans could become competitive for the General Assembly. The GOP won a Senate majority in 2005, and would win a House majority three years later, and many observers believe that the fight over an income tax helped make that possible.

Tennessee already has an income tax-the Hall Income Tax on stock dividends and bond interest. However, the Hall Income Tax doesn't apply to all Tennesseans or even to many federal income tax payers. What Tennesseans have demonstrated that they are opposed to is a tax on all income above a certain income level. It has been repeatedly demonstrated that any attempt to introduce such a tax in this State is an act of political suicide that is considered so heinous that the Governor who introduces such a thing may never be favorably viewed by a majority of Tennessee voters again.

Perhaps Bill Haslam, in the secret recesses of his political being, does favor a State income tax. Saying that Haslam intends to introduce one has the appearance of being disingenuous because Zach Wamp-or any other candidate who makes that statement-may as well say that Haslam isn't very intelligent (which he is). Bill Haslam is in no way so stupid as to inaugurate his own political Waterloo by introducing a tax Tennesseans universally oppose so that it may fail again and his name will be universally despised in the annals of Tennessee history. Bill Haslam wants to be viewed in a positive popular manner, and he knows that his father's previous political activities in favor of an income tax cause even Tennesseans who support him to cast a weary second eye in his direction on the subject.

Prediction: Haslam won't touch the income tax with a 10-foot poll for his entire tenure if he is elected.