Although the S&P 500 has only corrected 4.4% in April, from its high just off the1900 mark, there are Sentiment signs (not a prediction, of course), that it could be over, PTL.; both the Sector totals of Insider Selling dropped precipitously to only 11 to 1 Sellers (from 68:1 the week prior); while the newly found records of "smart" Insiders - Board members, Officers dropped to 150 sales, while 10% share holders reversed to more Buyers than Sellers! Per my Sentiment blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com, MMFs (Money Markets) are shedding dollars again and Equity funds are gradually picking up, per ICI. The AAII Bears inverted over the Bulls again - a Bullish contrarian sign
- although the Investors Intell. - Wire house advisory letters- were still complacent. In my studies of the two for my CMT designation on Sentiment, I found the AAII more accurate- from a Contrary point of view.
That said, there are starting to be rumblings of a more serious correction than 10% out there - one in Barron's based on Market to Revenues. Near the same level as 2000 and 2008, future earnings growth doesn't seem to sustain this 1.67:1 ratio again. We have seen the recent slide in tech darlings and biotechs, as the small caps have bumped down onto their 200 day Moving Average (MA), where previous punctures do not bode well. Jeff Bezos and Sheryl Sandberg have been selling their shares Bigtime!
Veteran technicians would not expect the Bull to renew until previous highs, say 1875 and 1900 of the SPX were breached, with Volume - this was a "Happy" Holiday (shortened) week. This is also a dangerous time for mid-term election years, through June, especially with my taking time off for a well needed vacation to the real casino - Lake Tahoe.
Speaking of gambling, if anyone wants to broaden their fast twitch trading expertise, there is a benefit Tuesday for disabled Veterans, which I hope to attend to sharpen my skills for So. Lake Tahoe: Blackjack, Poker, etc. for Charity at this site- www.walkingpoint.org.
Finally, I wanted to report on a very impressive presentation at the aforementioned S.F. Option Group meetup this past weekend, by the founder of LiveVol.com. Located downtown, they produce loads of option data on Order Flow and Implied Volatility that can help short term traders with who is buying large shares.