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Hagan gains against Tillis, Haugh falls back

2014 U.S. Senate candidate Sean Haugh (L-NC).
2014 U.S. Senate candidate Sean Haugh (L-NC).
Sean Haugh

On July 22, Public Policy Polling released a poll of the 2014 US Senate race in North Carolina. Incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has held steady against Republican Thom Tillis since last month, leading him 42 percent to 39 percent with 19 percent unsure.

But when Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh is named as a choice, he gets 8 percent of the vote, with Hagan at 41 percent, Tillis at 34 percent, and 16 percent unsure. This gives Hagan a 2 point gain and Haugh a 3 point loss since last month.

Delving deeper into the poll results, we find that Haugh wins the support of 11 percent of Republican voters, 4 percent of Democratic voters, and 14 percent of independent/other voters. A figure for Libertarian voters only was not given. Haugh has gained 3 percentage points with Republican voters and lost 5 percentage points with each of Democratic voters and independent/other voters since last month.

Gender information was included in the poll. Women go 44 percent Hagan, 27 percent Tillis, 8 percent Haugh. Men go 42 percent Tillis, 38 percent Hagan, 9 percent Haugh. Since last month, women have shifted 5 points toward Hagan, 2 points away from Tillis, and 4 points away from Haugh; and men have shifted 3 points toward Tillis and 1 point away from each of Hagan and Haugh.

Race was also included in the poll, as White, African-American, or Other. Whites go 42 percent Tillis, 32 percent Hagan, 10 percent Haugh. African-Americans go 73 percent Hagan, 7 percent Tillis, 4 percent Haugh. Others go 49 percent Hagan, 24 percent Tillis, 3 percent Haugh. Since last month, whites have shifted 1 point toward Tillis and 2 points away from Haugh; African-Americans have shifted 6 points toward Hagan, 1 point toward Tillis, and 4 points away from Haugh; and others have shifted 15 points toward Hagan, 6 points away from Haugh, and 13 points away from Tillis.

The age of the respondents were grouped into 18-29, 30-45, 46-65, and 66+. Among 18-to-29-year-olds, Hagan has 37 percent, Tillis has 17 percent, and Haugh has 15 percent. Among 30-to-45-year-olds, Hagan has 41 percent, Tillis has 33 percent, and Haugh has 8 percent. Among 46-to-65-year-olds, Hagan has 43 percent, Tillis has 37 percent, and Haugh has 7 percent. Among people aged 66 or older, Hagan has 40 percent, Tillis has 38 percent, and Haugh has 9 percent. Since last month, 18-to-29-year-olds have shifted 2 points away from Haugh, 4 points away from Tillis, and 9 points away from Hagan; 30-to-45-year-olds have shifted 7 points toward Hagan, 1 point toward Tillis, and 3 points away from Haugh; 46-to-65-year-olds have shifted 4 points toward Hagan and 3 points away from Haugh; and people aged 66 or older have shifted 3 points toward Tillis, 1 point away from Hagan, and 3 points away from Haugh.

The ideologies of the respondents were grouped as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, and very conservative. Among very liberal respondents, Hagan has 74 percent, Haugh has 8 percent, and Tillis has 4 percent. Among somewhat liberal respondents, Hagan has 76 percent, Tillis has 10 percent, and Haugh has 3 percent. Among moderate respondents, Hagan has 47 percent, Tillis has 20 percent, and Haugh has 11 percent. Among somewhat conservative respondents, Tillis has 54 percent, Hagan has 15 percent, and Haugh has 9 percent. Among very conservative respondents, Tillis has 71 percent, Haugh has 9 percent, and Hagan has 2 percent. Since last month, very liberal respondents have shifted 2 points away from each of Haugh and Tillis and 5 points away from Hagan; somewhat liberal respondents have shifted 4 points toward Tillis, 1 point toward Hagan, and 3 points away from Haugh; moderate respondents have shifted 2 points toward Tillis, 1 point toward Hagan, and 2 points away from Haugh; somewhat conservative respondents have shifted 1 point away from Hagan, 2 points away from Tillis, and 4 points away from Haugh; and very conservative respondents have shifted 5 points toward Hagan and 1 point toward each of Haugh and Tillis.

The Libertarian Party is the only third party with a candidate running in the 2014 US Senate race in North Carolina, perhaps because it is the only third party that has been able to meet the strict ballot access requirements in North Carolina.