Though it does not get the buzz of the famed (infamous?) NBA zig-zag angle, a winning system traces its roots as far back. But like the aforesaid angle, it is the refined adaptation that pro bettors make the most of in both college football and college basketball wagering.
The system is very straightforward: bet on unranked favorites to ranked teams. It does win long-term. Why? Sports handicapping is multi-faceted, but high on the list of secrets on betting sports is to isolate and monetize overvalued and undervalued teams. Related, it is also exploiting overachieving and underachieving teams about to regress to the mean.
Pitting the oddsmakers versus the media and siding with the oddsmakers is as accurate of a measurement to attain that as any.
The caveat that greatly enhances this code is to realize the more emphatic the statement the oddsmakers are making, the greater the doctrine becomes. Hence, the bigger the favorite coalesced with the higher ranked the underdog is, the more lucrative the theorem becomes and the more heavily it is weighted.
Remember our axiom, no one angle in and of itself means an automatic bet. All picks are a preponderance of evidence.
However, our integral enrichment answers most of the questions and retorts ever asked regarding it. “What if a team is ranked in one poll, but not the other?” Related is that this perspective traces its roots to when there was only a Top 20, now it’s 25. So what happens if it’s expanded to the Top 30?
Again, the higher ranked the underdog is, the stronger the edge. Hence if a team is only ranked in one poll (and presumably ranked very low in the other), only a mild consideration would be weighed by a top sports handicapper in that team’s esteem if at all.
One of the biggest improvements we have made in our handicapping in recent years is realizing motivation and pressure vary from game-to-game and situation-to-situation. Hence the prestige of being or beating a “nationally ranked” team regardless of whether the exclusive club numbers 20, 25 or higher should always be considered. However only unequivocal and emphatic (very highly ranked) circumstances of unranked to ranked teams reaches our radar screen anyway.
“What if one team opens as a favorite and the other closes?” This is not uncommon, especially when one team opens as a small chalk. Refer to our proviso that the larger the favorite, the stronger the angle becomes.
Still because as we said, we are pitting the oddsmakers, not the public against the polls, our application is based purely on the opening line. But with all line moves, we always investigate why the markets have changed.
When it is based on fluid intel, such as an injury update, that information supersedes. If the adjustments are based on money wagers, we use all of our contacts to segregate sharp money from square money. Bad line movements have always been worthy to fade. Hence if square money technically nullifies the system, in reality it enhances it because we apply based on the opening odds.
Most betting memes perpetuate urban legends and build more casinos. But a minority of such are rooted in angles that can be refined into goldmines.