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Grade my forecast: March 3rd bust on snow totals

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What is the purpose of a weather forecast? In my mind it is for you to get what you expect. I have yet to see perfection, and even with a good run myself this winter, not all scenarios can be seen and broadcasted with precision. But the benefit of social media is to not be locked into a time slot so we can track and adjust along the way with anyone who wants to join along.

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The reason for this post is to list the snow reports across Maryland from NWS and acknowledge that my final call for snowfall was way too high. So yes, I busted it! So after seeing this, as I have been doing for years, I want to ask for you to grade my forecast back on my Facebook page. The funny thing is that after the winter we have had, many people were actually happy we get less than expected, but others were agitated waiting for more to fall at the end of the storm. I get that.

Once I made the call for double digits, there was a lot of attention on the snowstorm in my circles. I can’t ignore the power of social media, and having a Facebook page with over 141,000 followers (reaching 2-5 million a week) and nearly 13,000 on Twitter makes me feel extra responsible. I do it for free and don’t represent a TV station, but my reputation will determine who will want to support my next efforts, especially when my new mobile app is released. To be so bold I had to have some confidence that will be the case. While I have paying clients that were in the know all the way, and happy with the foresight I have given them all winter, my public forecasts reaches a much larger area.

I presented all of my reasons for the storm to adjust a little north and produce more snow for us. I remained aligned with the Canadian Model that has been a valuable tool all winter. Even the NAM Model came back north with the storm in the last minute (compared to it’s mid afternoon run) and increased the totals. We were partially right with location, timing, and cold air. Heck, we just followed the storm with the coldest March temperature in Baltimore history. I boosted my totals on the shift north and the very cold air to increase the snow ‘fluff’ factor with increased ratios. But in the end many will only see what they measured with a ruler as a bust. That is why I want to see how you view my part in the forecasting game. I have had a great run this winter and surely this was my worst call.

What I got wrong: Snow was too high!

The main issue was how the arctic air from the north and moisture from the south would behave. I took the straight moisture expected from a few models and inflated the snow numbers based on the cold air having higher snow ratios. It was that simple.

  • For many I went 10”-14” in central Maryland and the range was between 2” to 6” with a few isolated higher spot.
  • Southern PA was a big bust, but I did acknowledge that the night before on my Facebook page. Instead of 5”-10” (or 8”+ by the MD line) it was more like 2” or less.
  • The big winners were along the Frederick/Carroll County boarder with 7” and around Washington DC with 5” or more.
  • Most of southern Maryland saw their largest snow of the season.
  • Much of our region fell in a 3-5 inch range.

The Maryland list of snowfall from NWS is below…

What went right?

  • It snowed!
  • Well, there was rain and ice prior to that.
  • The models shifted south and then back north, but I stayed the course.
  • The start time, change over time, and even extending the duration of the event. I did this based on stronger energy in the south and timing out the front.

See the entire snow spotter list from NWS Baltimore/Washington office below. It is a long list… but I wanted to include what they showed… then go back to this post on my Facebook page to add yours if you think it was different.

I called for a cold and snowy winter based on many reasons and now with over 30 inches in Baltimore, we are 50% above normal. It has been active ever since the record early start for the local ski resorts the day after Thanksgiving, helping to prove validation for my atmospheric memory theory. I wind more than I lose and I will certainly be out to do it again.

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Kid Weather App

Support my efforts: This is a great time to work off the active weather and see the app I made with my son (when he was 6 years old). It won a Parents Choice Award, was listed on Mashable.com's top 10 list of apps to teach kids science, and has been downloaded in 29 countries. We have over 400 items of trivia plus live weather and forecasts for kids. It's available on iTunes and for Android on Google Play and Amazon. See more and links for your device at kidweatherapp.com

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SNOWFALL MARCH 3, 2014 from NWS Spotters:

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...

1 SW AMERICAN UNIVER 6.0 545 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNE WASHINGTON 5.0 157 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SW NATIONAL ARBORE 5.0 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 E WASHINGTON 5.0 320 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 E NATIONAL ZOO 4.0 628 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARYLAND

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...

EDGEWATER 5.0 147 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 SSW DEALE 4.7 235 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

1 SSW SOUTH GATE 4.5 115 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

CROFTON 4.5 200 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NW ANNAPOLIS 4.5 215 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

ODENTON 4.2 130 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

BWI AIRPORT 3.8 100 PM 3/03 AIRPORT

2 SE DAVIDSONVILLE 3.5 545 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 NNE CROFTON 3.5 330 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERNA PARK 3.2 522 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 NW RIVA 3.0 300 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

PASADENA 2.7 516 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NNE OWINGS 2.5 500 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NE GREEN HAVEN 1.5 1230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...

ESSEX 4.1 410 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 NW LONG GREEN 4.0 100 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNE PERRY HALL 3.3 1220 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 WNW HEREFORD 3.2 135 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

PARKVILLE 3.0 300 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

...CALVERT COUNTY...

OWINGS 5.0 600 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

HUNTINGTOWN 4.0 415 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 WNW HUNTINGTOWN 4.0 630 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 WSW PLUM POINT 4.0 440 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 N HUNTINGTOWN 3.4 430 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

NORTH BEACH 2.5 121 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CARROLL COUNTY...

1 W WESTMINSTER 4.5 1230 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

...CHARLES COUNTY...

NANJEMOY 6.0 1240 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 S LA PLATA 5.5 340 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 SW DENTSVILLE 4.2 300 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNW ST. CHARLES 3.8 600 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

3 ESE ST. CHARLES 3.6 345 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 ESE BRYANS ROAD 3.5 355 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

...FREDERICK COUNTY...

FREDERICK 5.0 410 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NE POINT OF ROCKS 5.0 100 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

ROSEMONT 4.5 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

...HARFORD COUNTY...

E BEL AIR 4.0 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

PYLESVILLE 4.0 1240 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

WHITEFORD 2.5 321 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HOWARD COUNTY...

1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE 4.7 115 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ESE BRIGHTON DAM 4.5 200 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

WOODSTOCK 4.0 1255 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 N SAVAGE 4.0 1230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 WSW SAVAGE 4.0 1250 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SW ELLICOTT CITY 3.1 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

2 NE CLARKSBURG 8.3 1230 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 N DARNESTOWN 7.1 130 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 W DERWOOD 6.8 420 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 SSW GERMANTOWN 5.9 1235 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 SSW ROCKVILLE 5.9 130 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ENE POTOMAC 5.8 434 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 NNW NORTH POTOMAC 5.5 115 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

1 ESE NORBECK 5.5 100 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

1 SE OLNEY 5.5 100 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 WSW CLARKSBURG 5.4 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 ENE GAITHERSBURG 5.1 229 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

ROCKVILLE 5.0 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

COLESVILLE 5.0 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NNW DALECARLIA RES 5.0 325 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

CHEVY CHASE 5.0 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

BETHESDA 5.0 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 N GAITHERSBURG 4.7 1250 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 ESE MONTGOMERY VIL 4.6 100 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

1 W FAIRLAND 4.5 125 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 S FOUR CORNERS 4.5 130 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 ENE GERMANTOWN 4.5 159 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNE FAIRLAND 4.5 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NW COLESVILLE 4.1 130 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

5 NNW SILVER SPRING 4.1 200 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

1 SSW MONTGOMERY VIL 4.0 1215 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ESE WHEATON 4.0 1250 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ESE TAKOMA PARK 3.9 135 PM 3/03 FINAL TOTAL.

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...

MOUNT RAINIER 5.0 120 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 E BOWIE 4.5 230 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 SW COLLEGE PARK 4.0 543 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SW OXON HILL 3.9 445 PM 3/03 CO-OP OBSERVER

1 ENE ADELPHI 3.8 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SE LANGLEY PARK 3.4 225 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 N UNIVERSITY PARK 3.3 135 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...

GREAT MILLS 5.0 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

CALIFORNIA 4.5 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 W CALIFORNIA 3.5 435 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...

3 NW EARLYSVILLE 4.6 751 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 WSW WESTMORELAND 4.3 500 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 W WOODRIDGE 4.0 1229 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 WSW MONTICELLO 4.0 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 E SHADWELL 4.0 515 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SSW SHADWELL 4.0 600 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...

1 NNE BAILEYS CROSSR 5.3 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SW BALLSTON 5.3 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

S ARLINGTON 5.0 410 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

BALLSTON 4.8 204 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

ARLINGTON 4.5 122 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

1 N ALEXANDRIA 4.5 321 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 E BARCROFT 4.1 155 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP 3.8 221 PM 3/03 AIRPORT

...AUGUSTA COUNTY...

GREENVILLE 6.0 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

CHURCHVILLE 5.0 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

1 NNW STUARTS DRAFT 5.0 520 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

STUARTS DRAFT 4.8 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NNE FISHERSVILLE 3.8 120 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

FISHERSVILLE 3.3 500 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...

1 ENE ALEXANDRIA 5.0 255 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SE ALEXANDRIA 5.0 238 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 WNW NATIONAL HARBO 4.0 516 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 W ALEXANDRIA 3.8 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 WNW NATIONAL HARBO 3.0 240 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL 4.0 110 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNE CHARLOTTESVILL 3.5 450 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF FAIRFAX...

1 WSW FAIRFAX 5.0 600 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 N FAIRFAX 4.5 100 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...

1 E FREDERICKSBURG 4.0 300 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF HARRISONBURG...

HARRISONBURG 5.0 325 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

...CITY OF MANASSAS...

MANASSAS 9.0 304 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

...CITY OF WAYNESBORO...

WAYNESBORO 3.5 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

...CITY OF WINCHESTER...

2 S WINCHESTER 3.0 357 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CLARKE COUNTY...

2 ESE BETHEL 7.8 300 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 S WICKLIFFE 5.0 330 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 W MOUNT WEATHER 4.7 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNW BERRYVILLE 4.5 420 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

BOYCE 4.5 255 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CULPEPER COUNTY...

1 W CULPEPER 6.5 400 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 NW CARDOVA 5.0 327 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 WNW JEFFERSONTON 5.0 106 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...

1 SE CENTREVILLE 7.0 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 N RESTON 6.8 115 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 SSE CENTREVILLE 6.5 145 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

CHANTILLY 6.5 149 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NNE FAIRFAX STATIO 6.0 220 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NNE HERNDON 6.0 330 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

CENTREVILLE 6.0 614 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 SE CHANTILLY 5.9 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 E CHANTILLY 5.8 115 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

GREAT FALLS 5.5 410 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

VIENNA 5.5 200 PM 3/03 CO-OP OBSERVER

ANNANDALE 5.5 430 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 SSE FAIRFAX STATIO 5.5 315 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 W FALLS CHURCH 5.3 430 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NW NEWINGTON 5.0 300 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

BURKE 5.0 430 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

ROSE HILL 4.9 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 W FALLS CHURCH 4.8 200 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

1 SSE LINCOLNIA 4.8 400 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ESE DUNN LORING 4.8 200 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

1 WNW FALLS CHURCH 4.8 145 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SE THE I66 AND I49 4.7 450 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 NE BURKE 4.5 315 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 S LINCOLNIA 4.2 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SE FAIRFAX 4.2 615 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST SPRINGFIELD 4.0 440 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

RAVENSWORTH 4.0 150 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

1 N FRANCONIA 4.0 351 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...

WARRENTON 8.5 430 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 NNW WOOLSEY 6.8 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

OPAL 5.8 250 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

1 E MEADOWVILLE 5.5 124 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 W GREENWICH 5.1 220 PM 3/03 OTHER FEDERAL

1 ESE BEALETON 3.5 100 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FREDERICK COUNTY...

2 E STEPHENS CITY 5.0 1250 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...GREENE COUNTY...

1 W RUCKERSVILLE 5.5 700 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

STANARDSVILLE 5.0 500 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...KING GEORGE COUNTY...

JERSEY 4.0 115 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SSE SHILOH 4.0 454 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...

1 E ASHBURN 8.5 300 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 WNW COUNTRYSIDE 8.0 1225 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 SSW ARCOLA 7.5 530 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

ASHBURN 7.0 1230 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 WSW ASHBURN 7.0 100 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

2 SW DULLES INTERNAT 7.0 855 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 SW LEESBURG 7.0 130 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 W ASHBURN 6.8 230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

STERLING 6.0 145 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 ESE HUGHESVILLE 5.8 315 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SW PURCELLVILLE 5.0 250 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

DULLES INTERNATIONAL 4.9 320 PM 3/03 AIRPORT

2 WNW LEESBURG 4.8 250 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

PURCELLVILLE 4.8 522 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 WNW ROUND HILL 4.2 125 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 NNE PURCELLVILLE 3.2 1250 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MADISON COUNTY...

HAYWOOD 6.0 641 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 ESE MADISON 4.5 410 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NELSON COUNTY...

1 SSW ELMA 2.0 530 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...

1 NNW BARBOURSVILLE 4.0 330 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

...PAGE COUNTY...

2 SW PANORAMA 7.0 315 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ESE HONEYVILLE 6.3 315 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 SW IDA 6.0 200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...

4 N NOKESVILLE 8.0 115 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 SSE GAINESVILLE 5.5 130 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

2 ESE INDEPENDENT HI 5.3 445 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 ENE DUMFRIES 5.0 420 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

QUANTICO 3.5 1230 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

...RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY...

2 NW WASHINGTON 6.1 225 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 NNW SPERRYVILLE 5.0 1259 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 SE WASHINGTON 4.3 1253 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...

1 SSE SINGERS GLEN 7.6 543 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

TIMBERVILLE 7.0 1245 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

7 NW DAYTON 5.0 200 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

BERGTON 4.5 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

3 ENE ROCKY BAR 4.3 253 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIDGEWATER 4.0 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

1 SE MASSANUTTEN 4.0 1230 PM 3/03 CO-OP OBSERVER

...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...

MOUNT JACKSON 5.5 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

STRASBURG 5.0 1235 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

4 ESE CHANCELLORSVIL 6.1 410 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

3 N SPOTSYLVANIA 5.0 430 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

5 SSW WHITE OAK 4.1 600 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...STAFFORD COUNTY...

2 WNW ARKENDALE 5.0 500 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

3 WNW FALMOUTH 5.0 430 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

8 ESE FREDERICKSBURG 4.7 430 PM 3/03 COCORAHS

HARTWOOD 4.2 333 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

STAFFORD 3.5 130 PM 3/03 COUNTY EMRG MGMT

...WARREN COUNTY...

1 WSW KARO 6.5 1250 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 S FRONT ROYAL 5.5 1229 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

WEST VIRGINIA

...GRANT COUNTY...

2 ESE MOUNT PISGAH 2.0 100 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HARDY COUNTY...

MATHIAS 4.0 1237 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

1 NW RANSON 5.8 400 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PENDLETON COUNTY...

6 WSW CHERRY GROVE 10.0 344 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

FRANKLIN 7.0 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

SUGAR GROVE 6.2 430 PM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

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