As we now find ourselves closer to 2012 than to 2010, let's examine some recent poll results in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The most recent Fox News poll (released June 29th) has former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in the lead with 18% of Republican primary voters supporting his candidacy. Texas Governor Rick Perry, who has yet to declare his candidacy, is in second with 13%. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann comes up in third place with 11% support. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, another undeclared candidate, comes in fourth at 10%. Every other candidate (or potential candidate) polled was stuck in the single digits. One downside of this poll: only 324 Republican voters were surveyed.
The most recent Marist poll (also released on June 29th) has Romney on top with 19% support from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Giuliani and Perry tie for second place with 13% each. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin comes in fourth with 11% support. The remaining candidates all receive just single-digit support. Again, it's worth noting that just 308 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were surveyed for this poll, so there is a significant margin of error.
Finally, the most recent Rasmussen poll (released June 16th) has Romney in front with 33% support. Bachmann comes in second with 19%, and businessman Herman Cain comes in third with 10% support. The remaining candidates all earned support in the single digits. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely GOP primary voters.
From the above data, we can conclude the following:
- Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, considered by many analysts to be a top-tier candidate, has underwhelmed thus far.
- Mitt Romney is clearly the frontrunner, but his position as such is relatively weak.
- Rick Perry would be a serious contender for the nomination should he jump into the race. (Rasmussen did not include him in their poll.)
- Texas Congressman Ron Paul has been unable to break out as a top-tier candidate despite his very passionate base of supporters and his proven ability to raise huge sums of money.
- Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum will not be the nominee.
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