The Sentiment numbers that I follow were still mixed last week, mostly to the scary side, but with acknowledged government intervention (Fed's G.I. bill) it is hard to say when, or if we go sideways. The March sequester may provide some volatility. My new indicator, the Larry McMillan Equity-only put/call ratio in Barron's Striking Price (as opposed to the CBOE p/c) leveled off above the critical 75 line - it seems to rise after a market top. Quite a few punsters are warning of a top, so my contrarian instinct says to wait, but be ready to hedge any position, and not take any new ones after such a meteoric! rise.
The Dow 30 declined slightly for the second week in a row - after a series of higher highs, as did the Nasdaq; several Indicators backed off from their lofty levels - the CBOE put/call ratio, the VIX, the NYSE to NASD Volume, and the McClellan Oscillator went negative.
Breadth, as shown in the Advances versus Declines and new highs, lows, is still strong, but stable. Only the AAII bears increased in the surveys. For the first time in awhile, the Commitment of Traders showed Large Traders (supposedly the smart money) higher than Small Traders; but the key corporate insiders are still consistently selling their own shares every week - this time 43:1. Stock on a BUY signal via the Bullish % on the S&P 500 (SPX) crept higher to the top - "no one left to buy?".
Finally, lots of $$ came out of MMFs, but less than $1B went into domestic Equities last week. One can see the table and multi-year extremes at: www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com
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