Finally some progress seems to have been made in Greece’s financial crisis the cabinet has met and finalized the 130 billion EU rescue package. Greece will not be leaving the Euro. Tough sledding remains in implementing the austerity measures demanded by the EU, and it is likely the two parties in power will not be re-elected.
World stock markets were up sharply at the news, but enthusiasm waned near closing as the deal is not yet finalized. Greece has just over a week to finalize additional spending cuts of 3 billion Euros tied to the bailout deal. The unions have promised additional demonstrations.
On another front the UN nuclear agency has failed to gain access to key nuclear areas in Iran. The IAEA says its team is returning without any success in examining the key sites, or the opportunity to talk to Iran’s nuclear scientists.
The failure of the IEAE inspectors to gain access to information about possible military applications of Iran’s nuclear program lends to the speculation that Israel may mount a pre-emptive strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities.
It appears that Iran’s invitation to the nuclear inspectors was only another tactic to gain more time for the Iranian nuclear program. You would imagine that Iran is working frantically to get the major components of their nuclear program buried under enough earth to make an airborne assault ineffective.
While the president appears to be supportive of Israel, it is an election year; our major efforts seem to be on the diplomatic front. Would Israel warn the US of an impending strike on Iran? Probably, but most likely the timing of the notice would not be sufficient for the U.S. to stop that action, if it desired to.
While U.S. actions appear to be solely on the diplomatic front we can only guess at what plans the pentagon has. I would hazard a guess that the president would like to extend the possibility of an Israeli strike into 2013, after the elections. If he wins the election he will be in a more secure position politically, and if he loses it will be a Republican problem.
No one can predict what would happen if Israel does strike Iran. Iran has many missiles armed with conventional warheads, and Israel could probably expect daily barrages from Palestine. Would the Iranians close the straits of Hormuz? I would think that would be likely if only for a diversionary measure until Iran could repair its nuclear facilities.
We Americans have about as much to think about as Israel does, and we also have to consider the possible effects of a disruption of our Middle East oil supply. Our strategic petroleum reserve had storage for 45 days when it was full. President Obama has already used some of this supply to stabilize oil prices during the gulf oil spill.
If we are involved in conflict with Iran and Israel where would our fuel come from? The environmental lobby has been working hard to make it difficult for us to develop our energy resources, and permitting for new refineries is now so difficult no new refineries have been built in years. Our present refining capacity is barely adequate for our needs.
Just the possibility of an oil shortage is sufficient to drive up prices on the commodities market. An actual supply shortage could return us to the rationing of fuel we experienced during the Arab oil embargo.
Analysts say that supplies from Saudi Arabia can be increased, but in war time nothing can be taken for granted. Most Americans would feel more comfortable about our supply situation if the government made some serious efforts at self sufficiency before it is forced on us.
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