Joe Duffy’s Picks has certainly seen better short-term records in our nearly 26 years of public winning. But long-term winning resumes tonight with an MLB Wise Guy and an MLB Major. Which team has a slugging percentage edge of more than .200 in their last 10 games? Which team has two systems that are not overlapping that are each +96 units or better? The answers and a ton more corroborating data are up for a Tuesday sweep at OffshoreInsiders.com
A free NBA picks winner is:
MIAMI -2.5 Indiana
As long-time clients know, we have shown that the so-called NBA zigzag playoff betting theory is a virtual wash. It is above .500 but hovers around the winning threshold minus the juice.
Oh for those who don’t know what the zigzag theory is, it is simple: bet whichever team is off a loss in the previous series game to cover the next.
The better the team (Miami is the best team in the league and an all-time great) and the more evenly matched (check), the stronger a team is likely to bounce back. This is even truer when the better team is off a loss and trailing in the series. Check and check.
We have also found the deeper a team goes into the playoffs, the more affective it is as any team still alive has shown an ability to rebound from a loss. The blind zig-zag has won six of the last eight. Again, in and of itself those angles are not overwhelming, but confirm our long-term findings.
LeBron James has a four-point play in the fourth quarter of Game 1. He scored no other points. Suffice to say, he will come in with a big chip on his shoulder. That is not good for Indiana. Miami played as bad as they could have defensively. They have not won back-to-back championships without being able to make game-to-game adjustments.
The Pacers are not exactly the mark of consistency against the Hawks and Wizards. We will happily bet for inconsistency here.
Sports betting links pick: Miami Heat -2.5.