Catchy headline right? ..and true. Popular and, up to now, very accurate trend forecaster Gerald Celente predicts that by 2012 America will achieve 3d world status.
The good news is, he's wrong on this one. Lousy economy? Yes, but more like the 70's than the 30's. What's playing out now is an economic forrest fire. Business models that have succeeded during times of easy credit and rapid cash flow are now going to have to adjust to a climate where you have to actually create value and exercise cash flow discipline. There will be quite a few who don't make it. That's because it's been over 30 years since the last major purge.
When everyone is playing with other people's money, the trick is simply to get yourself in the middle of some cash flow and keep a bit for yourself as it passes through. That game is over for a while. The markers have been called in.
However, like a forrest after a fire, life will come back to the markets. Businesses that make a buyer feel like they've walked away from a transaction with more than they came in with, will survive and eventually thrive. Value producing business models will be emulated and the economy will get healthy again, until credit gets easy again.
The only way Celente's predictions come to pass is if America's capacity to change is somehow greatly inhibited. I'm not suggesting that the American people, and government don't make major blunders, just that our system enables us to rapidly change course once reality finally sets in. I expect government to overreact, over-regulate and over-reach in the short term. I also expect the American public to clean house in government in the intermediate term, and I expect America to survive and thrive in the long term.
So why should you believe little ole' me over a world famous soothe sayer? Because there's no value in promoting and embracing despair. And in this environment, if you're not creating value, you need to get out of the way. More importantly, because I'm right and he's wrong. Bookmark this entry and mark it "2012 prediction". If you're still able to access and respond to by then, I win.
Comments
Let's hope that the ancient Mayan culture was wrong about the end of the world in 2012. I've got vacation plans for 2013 that I don't want to miss.
I'm just glad I didn't own stock in Mayan culture.
Whatever happened to those guys?
right on, ed. celente has been wrong in the past, as I point out on my Culture Crash blog, which I'm not allowed to link to here but you can find by googling "tynan celente gloom" (w/o the quote marks).
also: greetings from wilmington.
dt
Thanks Dan
You can also find it by typing http, colon, slash, slash, blogs, dot, computerworld, dot, com, slash, tynan into your browser window.
doom and gloom sells, but it can be self-fulfilling if it goes unchallenged.
Check out Peter Schiff. He has been very accurate at predicting the direction of our economy over several years. Keep in mind that it took more than 10 yrs to get our economy going again after the depression of the 30's.
I hope that Celente and Schiff are wrong but the common sense feeling in me tells me they are right on this one.
Individual communities will have to pull this coming economic disaster around. I hope we have real leaders out there ready to step forward.
Fortunately, this is not the 30's. Markets react to global circumstance much faster these days, and just-in-time inventory management helps contain the damage as well. I've no doubt we're in for a tough year, maybe two, maybe 5, but reports of America's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Remember, the markets are a man-made enterprise. We don't have to helplessly sit back and watch calamity unfold. If the current system isn't working, we change it. If that doesn't work, we change it again. The much faster pace with which information flows is an important advantage over decades past.
I cannot believe how Naive you people are? Dont you understand the Federal Reserve is not a Federal Entity? Dont you understand the IRS is not a Government Entity? The Central bank has done what they have planned, the technology wasn't there in the 30's with the social security act! Now they can do it!, Now the New World Order will come to play here soon! I promise you this! I promise you that The US will have Martial Law, I promise you that your own government has been bought and paid for by the international bankers, The UN is apart of this New World Order Agenda! Its here and its all on purpose! This market was fixed and we stupid Americans fell for it! The darn television, and I want I want attitude! Always have to have what you cannot afford! Done... bait line and sinker! They loaned money out on purpose to Degenerate fools that had no business having houses that they could never afford! This was fixed! Read your bibles people! We took God Out Of Everything, We are Fat, Godless, Homosexual promoting and Baby killing Americans! Look at all this Blood pressure medicine and all these new diseases? Hello The FDA? They and our congress and the Big Pharma company's are intentionally poisoning us and making money off us! Since I quit eating all the fast food and store bought crap, I have never been sick in 8 years! NEVER DO ANYTHING that our government approves! Also dont think for one minute our gun rights wont be taken away either! As Hitler put it...If you want power over the people you must disarm them first! And also a statement from this Nobel Prize scum bag, We will have a one world government if we like it or not, by consent or by conquest! Ya people, the elites are ready to enslave us! If you dont believe this....My advice to you is your a typical stupid American with your blinders on!
i dont know celente but he does have a point. Wait till the american people wake up to what has been going on.
on the lighter side that guy over at (forecastfortomorrow dot com) has been spot on with all of this.
Got something to say?
Examiner.com is looking for writers, photographers, and videographers to join the fastest growing group of local insiders. If you are interested in growing your online rep apply to be an Examiner today!