Future of gaming, another foray with sales statistics

This passed September, video game culture released an article discussing the disconnect between sales statistics and the quality of video games. This sparked a healthy argument amongst gamers, the likes of which you can still read in the article’s comments section. While it may be true that sales numbers are not the best way to determine a franchise’s greatness – quality truly is a subjective matter after all – statistics are a great tool to use when prognosticating about the future of gaming with fair accuracy, especially when talking about new handhelds and consoles. Case in point, the coming of the Nintendo 3DS and Sony PSP 2, also the more distant Sony Playstation 4 and Xbox 720 (not official console names).

The experts at vgchartz.com have recently released an in-depth preview of 2011 in gaming. Several interesting things can be said about the future success (or stumbling) of next gen hardware even before they come out. Here is what to expect on the handheld front:

The 3DS will be big.

The PSP 2 will be not so big.

Here’s why:

You may be wondering, “how in the [insert favorite expletive here] can this examiner be so certain about these things?” It is same reason why high schools and colleges offer history classes – time and time again history repeats itself; and if we are to be intelligent gamers, we must learn from the video game industry’s (and culture’s) history.

It has been proven that next gen hardware have always done well if released just as or just after the previous generation hits its peak in sales. This is true of Super Nintendo relative to the NES, the Playstation 2 relative to the original Playstation and so on with the Game Boy Advance and DS. Just the inverse, when hardware releases long after the previous generation has peaked, it doesn’t do too well. Just look at the Nintendo 64, Playstation 3 and Sega Saturn when compared to their respective predecessors.

This is why a gamer can say the PSP 2 won’t do so well, since the PSP has been in deep decline for some time now expected to sell 50% less than its peak this coming year. The 3DS will be coming in well after the DS has peaked, too; but the DS is doing far better (only 38% below peak), which makes it more likely to succeed.

All this talk of sales and percents can be mind numbing. So let’s imagine a bicycle relay race through the mountains. The DS has biked up to the peak of its mountain and is getting ready to hand the baton over to the 3DS on the descent. The 3DS will have an easy time getting ahead since the hand-off is taking place relatively higher up, so the 3DS will gain more momentum coming down the DS mountain and will have more speed when it takes on its own. Not the same case for the PSP 2 since its hand-off will be taking place somewhere in the valley, so to speak.

Here’s another prognostication:

Playstation 4 and Xbox 720 will come out well before Wii 2 (again, not an official name).

Here’s why:

Ultimately, worldwide sales statistics over recent years show a steady decline for all three consoles. When console sales decline enough, companies release the next generation. That being said, Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 will most likely see a change in the guard faster than the Wii. For one, Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 are in more direct competition with one another than with the Wii. They’re fighting for the attention of the same hardcore gamer, HD audience; whereas the Wii had carved a new niche with casual, not-too-concerned-with-HD gamers.

So, if one envisions the proverbial pie, Sony and Microsoft are pushing and shoving one another trying to get more of a single pie which is almost all gone. Turn around, Nintendo is in the corner with his own pie half eaten, jam smeared all over his cheeks, his belly distended, a look in his eye telling that he’s going to take his time with the rest of it – he’s getting full, but there’s still room for more.

Of course, with the release of the Playstation Move and future release of Kinect, Sony and Microsoft respectively may have turned to find Nintendo’s pie, called him a glutton, and by forcing him to share in no way hide their own ravenous tendencies. However, the statistics swirling around the Move, which was released in September, has shown that it has a hard time helping Playstation 3 console sales; and it is mighty tempting to predict that this will happen with Kinect and Xbox 360.

In the end, both Sony and Microsoft are going to be contemplating the necessity to release new hardware faster than Nintendo since they share pretty much the same base of gamers, and gamers are not buying these consoles as much as they used to.