After a warm and dry first half of October, computer models and NOAA long-range forecasts hint at a cooler pattern to end the month. Highlighting the need for moisture, there's also a lack of decent precipitation as abnormally dry conditions continue.
So far, this month at MacArthur Airport has featured temperatures averaging about an astonishing seven degrees above normal, and could end up as one of the warmest Octobers in a short recordbook. The precipitation may be more of an issue, with only 0.17" fallen since October 1, and numbers that are about four inches below normal since September 1. The lack of rainfall heading this autumn has been widespread, and the latest Drought Monitor puts Long Island and New York City under "abnormally dry" conditions, or what could be considered a slight drought.
A few showers may come through Saturday night, but expected totals are no more than a tenth of an inch, and even that is optimistic. There is another chance of rain towards the middle of next week, but no major storms are on the horizon for the next seven days.
Cooler air, still bottled up in Canada, is poised to make its way stateside by the end of the upcoming work week. A complete shift from above normal to below normal temperatures are in the forecast by Thursday, which should lead to the end of the growing season on Long Island.
Highs will be in the 60s until Wednesday with lows in the 40s. By Thursday, a deepening trough and active jet stream bring showers and finally, the cooler air. Highs end up only in the 50s and lows close to the freezing mark, at best, in some spots.
A glance at the trend shown in the GFS model shows cooler air sticks around for a while. The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA also predicts below normal temperatures for a good portion of the country in 8-14 days.