ANALYSIS:
The November 14 "Firepower" fight resembles a lion (Manny Pacquiao) fighting a bear (Miguel Cotto). We simulated five key strategies both men will need to execute in order to win.
Five Strategies (CLICK: Photo Simulation >>)
1. Manny Pacquiao will need to move to his left in order to attack Miguel Cotto's weaker right side. At the same time, that allows the Filipino to escape Cotto's venerable left jab and hook.
2. Freddie Roach's declaration of an early Pacquiao assault is a deception. Pacquiao needs to create space between himself and Cotto early in the fight. He cannot afford to trade blows with Cotto until Roach gives the signal, probably towards the middle of the fight (rounds 5 - 7). The Puerto Rican is the strongest opponent Pacquiao will have ever faced.
3. Roach has bragged about Manny's improved right hand. This is all smokescreen. The gameplan for this fight clearly calls for the Filipino's right to be his defensive block. That right hand will be crucial in guarding against and blocking Cotto's impressive left jab and hook. Manny's left will be the offensive weapon against Cotto's relatively weaker right side. On the other hand, Cotto was able to knock down the larger Joshua Clottey with a lightning left jab.
4. There has been much talk about Cotto's left hook, especially to Manny's body. But the Puerto Rican's zip left jab is just as risky for Manny. It is tough to tell when Cotto snaps that left jab. But he clearly telegraphs his left hooks and left power punches, which Manny should be able to see. (In an article tomorrow, we'll cover the three ways that Cotto telegraphs his punches. Pacquiao should see Cotto's left power punches coming . . . but not always Cotto's left jab. This is one of the x factors of the fight.)
5. Cotto does not always have to land flush on Manny in order to hurt the Filipino. Cotto punches that hard. Pacquiao, on the other hand, will need to land flush combinations in order to stagger Cotto. Roach likely won't give the green signal for attacking combos until the middle rounds, and only if Cotto gets hurt. Secondly, Roach's and Pacquiao's priority will try to win the first four rounds on points, thus they will showcase cautious, more active, early rounds. If they are up on the scorecards 4-0, Cotto will need to win six of the next eight rounds just to score a draw (assuming no knockdowns or point deductions). Therefore, Roach is devising a strategy to win first on points. Then, if Cotto slows down, then they can go for knockout (and that's an IF).
CONCLUSIONS:
On November 14, the Roach-Pac battleplan should resemble a classic Sun Tzu Art of War doctrine: hit the enemy, then move (run). Do not engage the enemy head on or it will be a war of attrition, and many of your soldiers will suffer. Sun Tzu was an early Chinese general who lived until 496 B.C. He is also one of history's greatest military commanders. His victories over competing kingdoms almost always against much larger (and less mobile) armies than he did. Tzu employed a small precision force that was difficult to predict, or detect. He liked to strike only when there was a high probability of success in the engagement.
If Pacquiao darted in and out to avoid full engagement with Oscar de la Hoya, logic dictates Roach and Pacquiao will follow the same effective strategy with Miguel Cotto. Footspeed and handspeed are in their favor. Also, Manny's left vs. Cotto's right is in their favor. The x factor for Cotto is his quick and powerful left jab. Cotto needs to make it an emotional fight to try and bring Pacquiao off his game. Cotto telegraphs his power punches, and Pacquiao will see it coming. In a subsequent article, we illustrate how Cotto telegraphs his punches.
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
(1)(2)(1).jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
(1).jpg)
Comments
Pacquiao is easy target for Cotto, easy fight !!
Cotto does not always have to land flush on Manny in order to hurt the Filipino. Cotto punches that hard. Pacquiao, on the other hand, will need to land flush combinations in order to stagger Cotto. Roach likely won't give the green signal for attacking combos until the middle rounds,
This week, Freddie Roach starting to sounds less confident in Pacquiao-Cotto fight.
In fact, the other day he stated that Manny needs a "perfect fight" to win. And that Manny knew more than him the
things needed to do to win the fight. Seems that Freddie hold up some thing to the public that may bother or affect the fight.
Now, in their final press conference, Roach thank everyone on Team Pacquiao, stating ‘I couldn’t have done it without you guys’. Seems a farewell speech for Freddie.
guess what, pacquiao is right handed with right lead, just like cotto with left lead. you underestimate pacquiao's right hand, as much as you overestimate cotto's left. well, maybe a little more.
a very intelligent analysis. Great work man.
pac 5th round brutal ko
TO ALL MY FELLOW BOXING FANS..I'M WRITTING THIS LETTER EXACTLY TWO DAYS BEFORE THE FIGHT, AND I'M TELLING EVERYONE THAT I'M SO EXCITED THAT I COULD NOT WAIT TO SEE IT ON 11/14. NOW, IF ONE OF THIS FIGHTERS WOULD SPOIL THE FUN, FOR INSTANCE COMING OVERWEIGHT, DOING DIRTY TRICKS DURING THE FIGHT AND SO ON..THEN I'M TELLING YOU IN ADVANCE THAT I WOULD BE VERY, VERY MUCH DISSAPOINTED..NOW, TO BE FAIR I'M ADDRESSING THIS LETTER TO ALL OF MY FELLOWMEN OUT THERE AND TO BOTH FIGHTERS TO MAKE IT CLEAN..THANKS A MILLION.
NOW, I'VE JUST HEARD THAT COTTOS TEAM DURING "THE FINAL PRESSCON" IS PREPARING A PLAN 'B' IN CASE I GUESS IF PLAN 'A' WOULD FAIL..HONESTLY, I JUST WISH THAT IT WON'T BE PLAN "BALLS".
Whatever,... just keep talking,... 2 more days and you out of business. Cotto with sweep the ring with Pac head., a new paint job,...RED
“I see Cotto actually stopping Pacquiao. I believe everybody is on the Pacquiao bandwagon right now, but it a lot of it has to do with the Ricky Hatton knockout, and again, I will go back and say it—Ricky Hatton was not as good people made him out to be.”
If you are the opponent of Manny will you able to do the simulation? I don't think so why because of Adrenaline.
The Puerto Rican body puncher with his near peek-a-boo style that morphs into a left-handed slickster or right-handed dancer has proven to have courage. He could have packed his bags and called it a career after getting demolished by Mexico’s Antonio Margarito. He could have cried foul and hoped that America would listen to him. And he could have fought lesser competition such as some undefeated fighter from the savage state of Indiana or Montana. But he didn’t. He beat Joshua Clottey to get here and that’s no cupcake.
“A win over Manny Pacquiao and all that bad stuff is erased,” said Freddie Roach, who trains and advises Pacquiao. “Cotto breaks people down, I’ve watched tapes. We have to throw little bit of a curveball at him. He’s a really strong fighter. He knows distance very well. We have a speed advantage so we have to use it in a wise way.
do you know that what they call the new weapon of pacquiao, that right hook the world noticed starting the diaz fight? he always had that. just watch his old fights, when he was still unknown, he had that hook since before, its not new at all. he can throw that perfectly. add to that his short left cross he put away diaz and kd marquez(and morales,i guess) with, what have you got? thats both sides. but cotto uses his shoulders to block hooks, he raises them to hides his neck and block hooks, but when he does this, he's open for a straight. guess what pacquiao has, yep, the straight left. but then again cotto stalks like crazy once he gets you on target, unless he runs out of steam and starts taking his back-peddling rests. pacquiao can tire him easily if he stalks him,he can just evade him, put him in his back-peddling mode and give him combinations on the ropes. but then again the deciding factor would be if cotto can hit pacquiao and if pacquiao can take punches from a real welter
shut up...just bet all your money to cotto...and by the way,, all of your are invited...in my victory party!! especially cotto fans...hahahahaha
to all cotto fans....your mouth talks about your feelings about this upcoming fight...are all of you nervous? i cant blame you,, you cant bet your money even you are cotoo fans..hahahaha.. peace and God bless..see you in my party!!
News
COTTO IS BIGGEST OBSTACLE IN PACQUIAO’S RING CAREER -- ARUM
By Alex P. Vidal
PhilBoxing.com
Thu, 12 Nov 2009
LAS VEGAS, Nevada – Top Rank chief Bob Arum has described World Boxing Organization (WBO) welterweight champion Miguel Angel Cotto as “the biggest obstacle in (Manny) Pacquiao’s ring career” during the final press conference for the “Pacquiao vs Cotto: Firepower” at the Hollywood Theater in MGM Grand, here, Wednesday afternoon.
“Cotto has a heart as big as this room,” the 77-year-old prominent promoter enthused as he moderated the three-hour media forum attended by members of coaching staff from both camps.
Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) was paraded in the conference ahead of Pacquiao towed by his father, Miguel Sr. and trainer, Joe Santiago.
“I trained a lot like never been before for this fight and we have created a game plan on how to beat Pacquiao,” Cotto, who turned 29 last October 29, remarked in a brief speech. “I dedicated this fight for the
MANNY YO, THEIR'S ONLY ONE STRATEGY THAT I KNOW IT WOULD HAPPEN AT THE END OF THE FIGHT..IT'S CALLED PACMANS SICKLE (SINANGGOT IN OUR DIALECT WITH PAC) LEFT AND PACMANS HUMMER RIGHT..IT'S LIKE SOVIETS FAMOUS, FAVORITE SYMBOL.
pardon..HAMMER
After a two-hour workout at the gym last month, a confident Cotto talked about defeating Pacquiao, whose acclaim grew exponentially after he beat Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton - two larger men who were supposed to put the former 130-pound champion in his place.
His confidence is contagious. He left no doubt in my mind that he has everything he needs to beat Pacquiao. The only qualms I have are with his corner where the inexperienced Joe Santiago will have to match wits with Freddie Roach, Pacquiao's longtime trainer and chief strategist.
Thanks to Roach, Pacquiao showed the kind of power and resourcefulness that was necessary to deal with a bigger opponent. But this is the first time that he will fight a welterweight champion in his prime.
"I'm working for everything I think he's going to do, and I'm pretty sure that we're not going to have any problems the night of the fight," Cotto said.
After taking a beating from Antonio Margarito, who is suspected of using loaded g
You blew it!
You blew it!
DUMON YO!! If Cotto would keep on standing back like Hatton..the way Manny give his RIGHT "HAMMER" PUNCH (MARTILYO in our dialect with PAC)..then Manny has no choice except to give him his LEFT "SICKLE" SIMI-ROUND HOUSE PUNCH (SINANGGOT in our dialect with PAC) as final judgement!!
Cotto by KO!!
NO. 6 STRATEGY
The figueroa style,the MONKEY STYLE, this style will definitely KILL the patience of cotto as he hated Figueroa so much for MONKEYING AROUND like the sugar ray vs Duran II where duran quit because leonard was peeeezzing him of with his monkeying. This will definitely kill Cotto and he will punch himself instead if he can't catch Pacquiao at all. This one style Calderon uses when they were amateur. Just run around cotto and just slap his ears to damage his concentration...I'll bet for a UD if Pac uses this style.
Your boy Cotto will sh!t his pants when he gets bombarded with straight lefts and right hooks of Pacquiao. Just think about this Cotto fans, Margarito is a slow puncher but he still got Cotto with a lot of punches to the face. Imagine what Pacquiao can do to the face of Cotto. If all of you Cotto fans are confident that he will beat Pacquiao, why don't you bet your house???Chicken sh!t!!!
Pacquiao has no power to hurt Cotto. Cotto by KO!!
cotto d' slomo
Cotto strategy is to punch pacquiao balls, using elbows, kicking, but the main techniques cotto always using is punching opponent balls........disqaulified disqualified disqualified cotto
The Figueroa blue print NO. 6 STRATEGY
The figueroa style,the MONKEY STYLE, this style will definitely KILL the patience of cotto as he hated Figueroa so much for MONKEYING AROUND like the sugar ray vs Duran II where duran quit because leonard was peeeezzing him of with his monkeying. This will definitely kill Cotto and he will punch himself instead if he can't catch Pacquiao at all. This one style Calderon uses when they were amateur. Just run around cotto and just slap his ears to damage his concentration...I'll bet for a UD if Pac uses this style.
Cotto's sparring partner Figueroa.
The Figueroa blue print NO. 6 STRATEGY
The figueroa style,the MONKEY STYLE, this style will definitely KILL the patience of cotto as he hated Figueroa so much for MONKEYING AROUND like the sugar ray vs Duran II where duran quit because leonard was peeeezzing him of with his monkeying. This will definitely kill Cotto and he will punch himself instead if he can't catch Pacquiao at all. This one style Calderon used when they were amateur. Just run around cotto and just slap his ears to damage his concentration...I'll bet for a UD if Pac uses this style.
What you are saying is informative. but as mike tyson said,"you have a gameplan until you are hit".
This is a good obsevation, but the thing you must understand is that; The weapon of dela hoya is the left hook, roach knows this already. Hatton's is a left hook also. However which way, these weapons are no longer new to pacquiao. Even if pacquiao goes to his right side with the head under cotto's hook to create a much longer left straight by pacquiao. he still can do it.
in order for the left hook to be powerful, the left foot should be properly placed first, which i doubt cotto could do it in time judging on manny's speed. This was dela hoya's main problem. He can't lunch his deadly bazooka when the target was no longer there.
good point, mark. the point is, it is fast face action.
in a split second, one can unleash 5to10 punches. no time to react for defense, unless the strategy is all defense for pacquaio.
if the fight is robotic then one by one pacquiao can follow the simulation.
to sum it all...matira ang matibay sa suntok.
Pacman will curse the day Nov. 14, 2009. He will regret fighting Cotto the rest of his life.
same strategy for oscar and hatton. left hooks dont bothers manny, ask oscar and ricky.
when manny lands his bombs, cotto will be relactant to trow those left.
I am happy for people to think [Manny] Pacquiao is going to win. It gives me extra motivation and I will enjoy it even more when I prove them all wrong.
— Antonio Margarito
he will spin cotto to cotto's left, in that way, cotto will not have the chance to position his feet for his left counter. pac will be to close to cotto's left hand.
and also, in this way pac will have all the chances to throw his weapons, in the moment cotto turns to his left, pac will be ready to throw those right hooks and left nukes.
every big guy that manny punched, react, like they dont know what hits them. why will be cotto be any different?
...i agree, it's not the hand, it's the foot speed that will matter. and Cotto's power punches rely mostly on his foot (e.g. when Cotto throws his knockout punch, his foot steps forward). this style is applicable to stationary boxers, boxers who doesn't move a lot and who rely mostly on counter punching. one thing i notice in Cotto's posture or stance, is that he bend or bows a lot.
before Cotto can land his shot, Manny already threw 2-3 combination and move from harms way.
I say that this doesn't make sense. First, this is an analysis based on still photographs. The 6 to 8 frames per second used in sports photography makes capturing this images possible. But you have to consider that's only a fraction of a second. The moment Cotto realizes opportunity to give a strong blow, Pacquiao had already circled around him twice and hit him from the other side.
Second, the thinking process made to come up with the analyses is entirely different from the fighters mindset inside the ring. Fighters have to think of defense and offense, move around and duck punches all at the same time. You have to be a fighter to have at least the slightest credibility to make this kind of analysis. Roach is a fighter and I will take his thoughts rather than this. He -- Roach -- is a tactician. He knows his fighter in as much as he knows the opponent. I'm still seeing pacquiao pressing hard on cotto on the early rounds. Roach must have seen something he can exploit.
What you are saying is informative. but as mike tyson said,"you have a gameplan until you are hit".
This is a good obsevation, but the thing you must understand is that; The weapon of dela hoya is the left hook, roach knows this already. Hatton's is a left hook also. However which way, these weapons are no longer new to pacquiao. Even if pacquiao goes to his right side with the head under cotto's hook to create a much longer left straight by pacquiao. he still can do it.
in order for the left hook to be powerful, the left foot should be properly placed first, which i doubt cotto could do it in time judging on manny's speed. This was dela hoya's main problem. He can't lunch his deadly bazooka when the target was no longer there.
To Manny I remind you bro just to take care of your two FISTS in pounding Cottos thick boned face!! Your too much speed and power might hurt you..just an opinion.
Miguel is flatfooted, he never move so much, but he is stable on that position, to say he is most dangerous that way. Manny should move around and put Miguel in awkward position, then he can attack. Kayang kayang mo yan Manny. Mabuhay ka Marv.
i think Miguel Cotto is not yet ready to fight Manny Pacquiao on November 14 both physically and mentally..the way i look at him in T.V.,he will not last 12 rounds in this fight and he will lost his WBO welterweight title..Miguel Cotto weighs 160 lbs. before the negotiation and agreed to fight Manny Pacquiao at 145 lbs..losing 15 lbs. prior to the fight is not easy for the fighter like in the case of Cotto..he is not comfortable at 145 lbs. because he is a natural welterweight(147 lbs.) fighter..Manny Pacquiao has the advantage in terms of power,speed and skills inside the ring plus the presence of Freddie Roach during the actual fight..for me,this fight will not last 10 rounds and Miguel Cotto will suffer a devastating loss..Manny Pacquiao will become the first and only boxer in the whole world who captured 7 different weight division title..i believe that Manny Pacquiao-Freddie Roach tandem is still the best tandem in the sport of boxing..GOOD LUCK and GOD BLESS to MANNY PACQUIAO!!
hey man, don't you think its pretty obvious that you're a miguel cotto fanatic or what. if you want to share your thoughts about this fight, be fair.
Man! I'm nervous about this fight and i voted it.
I hope both will be at their best and that there won't be any excuses.
I'm for Manny of course!
By the way, PBF, Paul Williams will massacre you!
@Kang Kong Kernitz,
Slow down your coffee intake yo, it just makes you more nervous thus creating rapid palpitation..just relax and enjoy this saturday. I think their was an incident in the past during I guess Marquez fight that their's a person who got heart attact..so well avoid that this time.
pardon..attack
AGAIN NOT TO ANNOY YOU BUT I HAVE TO SAY WHAT I HAVE TO SAY..
TO ALL MY FELLOW BOXING FANS..I'M WRITTING THIS LETTER EXACTLY TWO DAYS BEFORE THE FIGHT, AND I'M TELLING EVERYONE THAT I'M SO EXCITED THAT I COULD NOT WAIT TO SEE IT ON 11/14. NOW, IF ONE OF THIS FIGHTERS WOULD SPOIL THE FUN, FOR INSTANCE COMING OVERWEIGHT, DOING DIRTY TRICKS DURING THE FIGHT AND SO ON..THEN I'M TELLING YOU IN ADVANCE THAT I WOULD BE VERY, VERY MUCH DISSAPOINTED..NOW, TO BE FAIR I'M ADDRESSING THIS LETTER TO ALL OF MY FELLOWMEN OUT THERE AND TO BOTH FIGHTERS TO MAKE IT CLEAN..THANKS A MILLION.
NOW, I'VE JUST HEARD THAT COTTOS TEAM DURING "THE FINAL PRESSCON" IS PREPARING A PLAN 'B' IN CASE I GUESS IF PLAN 'A' WOULD FAIL..HONESTLY, I JUST WISH THAT IT WON'T BE PLAN "BALLS".
I WAN'T EVERYONE TO FEEL HEALTHY IN THE SPORT..CHEERS, SALUD!!
excellent article! I enjoyed reading it, many thanks.
Manny Pacquiao's fight strategy: Exploit Cotto's most feared arsenal (i.e. left hook). Cotto very certainly would use it very early in the fight. A combination of timing, speed and power will end the fight early. Cotto will go down the canvass 100%.
the foot speed will definitely be the difference.. cotto unleashes brutal power shots because he plants his feet well and establishes good balance hence enabling him to put his whole weight on every punch. if pac can use his superior footwork, he can spin cotto in different directions and somehow upset miguel's balance and footwork therefore decreasing the power of his punches. i've seen the fast hands of miguel cotto against mosley but ive never seen cotto having goot footwork. Cotto is very fundamentally sound when it comes to technique and manny's awkwardness and unorthrodox style may confuse him and bring him some problems.
i'm both excited and nervous for this fight. anything could happen bcoz they're both killers in the ring. but of course im routing for our main man MANNY!! couldn't sleep last night just thinking about the fight. i also admire cotto as a boxer. this guys is tough just like manny. i can't wait for NOV. 14! hope it will be a good clean fight so we'll know who's really the best. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WIN for MANNY if ever he pulls it off. (fighting a prime, big, young, champion, and one of the most avoided fighters in welterweight)
Pages
Got something to say?
Examiner.com is looking for writers, photographers, and videographers to join the fastest growing group of local insiders. If you are interested in growing your online rep apply to be an Examiner today!