I know it’s a bold prediction, especially in light of the poll numbers from the LA Times and the Field Poll, but Meg Whitman is about to take Jerry Brown to the mat. Here’s why:
1. Rasmussen has moved the race from Leans Democrat to Toss-up as of their latest report. It’s back in the margin of error of 4 points, at 49 to 45 in favor of Brown. What’s significant is that last week Brown had a six point edge, at 48 to 42. Brown’s picked up one point since then, and Whitman has gained three. Summary: Whitman is gaining.
2. The LA Times/USC poll is wrong. Earlier this week, the LA Times released poll results showing Brown leading the race 52 to 39. There isn’t a major poll that places the race anywhere near these numbers, which if it were accurate, would make the race a blow out for the Democrats—while all the other polls call it a toss-up or within a few points. As an example of how out of touch this poll is, The Times has Brown gaining significant support among conservatives, which is about as likely as Obama getting invited to a Tea Party cook-out. They also projects a Democrat voter turnout similar to that in 2006, when they took control of Congress. Yeah, sure, anyone can see that. On the other hand, maybe polling was conducted among Governor Moonbeam’s staff.
3. The Republican Tsunami will be so large, that Democrats will stay home. By the time most people are ready to vote in California—that is, after work— results will be in from the east and some of the midwest, and it will be apparent that the democrats will lose a significant number of seats in the House, the Senate, and Governor’s mansions. Democrats will stay home, as Republicans did in 2008.
4. The Field Poll is wrong. The Field Poll, which got both the Duekmajian and Wilson elections wrong, has historically overstated the Democrat vote. And in a year when the left is apathetic and the right engergized, using previous models to gauge this election just doesn’t work.
5. The Whitman camp is not panicking, because internal polls now have the race as a dead heat, and moving her way. Whitman was in Walnut Creek on Thursday, and the Contra Costa County GOP released results of two internal polls, one showing the race tied, the other, with Whitman in a slight lead. Both polls were conducted during this past week. Admittedly, they are polls for the GOP, but they are at the very least consistent with others that show the race as a tight one.
And reason number 6 (yes I know I said five, but this p.s. is big) Willie Brown, former California House Speaker and former Mayor of San Francisco, says that if the race is within 8 percentage points, the dems will lose. "I do not believe that Jerry Brown has a ground operation," Willie said (see the video at left). And Willie Brown, Democrat, knows politics.
Comments
Sounds good to me!!!
poses a good argument if the Democrats stay home, I think a long shot because of the attitude of enough is enough by most folks who want to vote for massive changes of out with the old guard and in with the new. This I believe will encourage voters to still go to vote for the local issues in California with all of our problems and concerns, in spite of early results on a national basis.
Hi! Robt.
But you're motivated, and the argument is that the Dems are not, they're content with what they voted for in 08. And the Democrats have lost the independents.
Delusion - the reality is people really don't like Meg because she has the personality of a lawn gnome.
Jerry Brown is the lesser of two evils.
Obama is a very good example of what happens when votes are based on personality, and not ability. And that's why his support, even among the hard core, is in the tank. If people have learned that lesson, Meg will do very well.
I don't know where you are getting your information but I lived through "governor moonbeams" first tenure as governor of California and HE is a large part of the reason this state, its problems and its legislative body has been so screwed up for the last 40 years. From the killing of our road and transit system for the future to the embracing of illegals and the tax the hell out of them mentality of Calif^*kya. Problem has ALWAYS been the Dem's have held a monopoly on what gets done in this 'F'ed up state and until Boxer, Brown, Feinstein and the likes of them are gone, this state will continue to only spiral downwards. Arnold tried and failed because of the Democrats controlling every aspect of the decision making process. I for one am fed up with the "lesser of two evils" in politics. Give me someone who can lead with common sense and the others can all drop dead where they stand. Here endeth the lesson!
Though I understand your desire to be hopeful for your candidate, I suspect that Jerry Brown will win with about 52% of the vote. Meg Whitman has had trouble getting beyond 44% support, with most polls showing her drifting around the 40% mark. California is still a blue state and Whitman has suffered in recent weeks from bad press including the story concerning her housekeeper. She cannot win without substantial female and Latino voters, two groups who are energized, by double digit margines, to vote for Brown. In any event, it's been a fascinating race and I look forward to seeing what happens on Tuesday. Thanks for your interesting take on the race.
Thanks for the comment Daniel. If Brown wins, I don''t think we'll see an 8 point margin. He'll eke it out with 2 or 3, if he wins. It has been an interesting race, and like predicting the World Series in April, full of surprises.
Meg has problems. She's spent a record setting amount of money, we may suspect to help cover up all of her s**t bombs she's detonated, and she is simply unlikeable. Brown's charisma, name, and eyebrows are going to prove the victorious loser here.
Hahahaha. I wasn't sure if this was a serious article because this person sound like a crazy activist who has no stake in reality. "STATEGERYIST"
THIS IS SENATOR HARRY REID'S, BOXER & BROWNS ULTIMATUM TO THE TAXPAYERS OF AMERICA. MASS AMNESTY!
All I know about Senator Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer and generally--ALL--Liberal Democrats are that they are genuflecting to illegal aliens and an Liberal-Dem Incumbent returns means Amnesty for the 13 to 20 million living here. Reid has affirmed that in the Lame Duck session of the Senate he will pass this abhorrent Amnesty to criminals. What remains is the silence, about the cost of $2.6 Trillion dollars (Heritage Foundation), to make it comfortable for illegal aliens which will come out of taxpayers’ pockets; added to the 13. 5 Trillion Federal Debt we already have accumulated. The far left progressives have already voted for the illegal invasion and to extend our Social Security to them, even the ones who never paid into the system (May 2007) GOOGLE—On The Issues website. WE ARE DIGGING OUR OWN FINANCIAL GRAVES WITH REID IN SENATE AND BOXER.
Under another reign of the Liberal Democrats, America might just as well open the border gates wide; demolish the half-completed fence between our Southern border and the other side. Then have Senator Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Russell Feingold, Jerry Brown, standing at each entrance handing out maps, welfare chits, a brand new Social security cards, a drivers’ license and about $600 dollars of taxpayer money. Hey! Reid says we can take more foreigners into our midst, as we only have 15 million citizens and legal residents, looking for a job, while 8.6 illegal nationals are gainfully employed. Have every Democrats lackey stand outside each border hospital and proffer to every pregnant woman, who reached America a brand new birth certificate, for the potential instant citizenship baby, a check for the public benefit line and a signup sheet for low income Section 8 housing—so the whole family can join them.
Additionally, for every child they now have from now on, food stamps, cash payments and a medicade card for future pregnancies. The wives can churn out more children to become immediate citizens and swell our schools to overload, where nobody is learning because the teachers have to first contend with children, where English is a second language. In California where 18.9 percent of the kids drop-out of high school, because many teachers don't comprehend English, as they have been recruited from South of the border. Democrats could lay-off the US Border patrol, the DEA, ICE and other policing authorities, so that the uneducated, those carrying contagious diseases, the destitute and other foreign peons could take the jobs of our own impoverished workforce.
Maybe the Catholic Church and other religious groups will take the illegal nationals into their homes, feed them. Perhaps we should place notices in every barrio, ghetto around the world and have these nonsensically politicians procure military aircraft, to fly in every foreign national, every criminal and terrorist into our nation. Have fleets of buses waiting to transport them, to every corner of America, with stop-offs at hospitals for the sick, mentally handicapped and old. We should have ambulances waiting at the border or airport terminals, to drive those individual who must get immediate dialysis, prescription drugs or a major surgery. With the Obama's new medical care reform most of these special issues will be recognized, as illegal aliens will have no insurance or any ability to pay for physician’s treatment.
They walk away completely free of paying and once again the taxpayer-patsy will get the bill, while citizens will be chased down by obnoxious debt collectors. Taxpayers can foot the bill as they have always done and my guess always will, unless these corrupt politicians on both sides of the aisle in Washington actually work for the American people. That’s why THE PEOPLE'S TEA PARTY has risen in a revolution, to halt the corruption and greed of both parties. GOOGLE—NumbersUSA website and Judicial Watch and learn about the deep seated corruption Google—Illegal alien costs and read highly regarded reports from unbiased sources.
If we vote back the hidden Liberals, it will be self inflicted wounds. Attention should be drawn to illegal aliens voting, as Senator Reid's is there only real chance of the passage of---AMNESTY.
Well, my prediction (see comment earlier in this post) was a little conservative...I predicted Brown wins with 52% and it appears that he won with 54%. I did note that Whitman had been stuck at the 40% range in all the polls I've seen, and it appears those polls were correct. So, interesting race. Now the hard work is ahead.
Daniel-- you were right, good call. And I agree, the hard work begins.
Joe, I gotta give you credit for acknowledging Daniel from So Cal was right. Commendable of you, most bloggers would ignore it. I'm an independent and that's the type of honest dialogue we tend to like.
Thanks for the comment. I don't mind acknowledging an that I was wrong. Heck, I was sure my Yankees were going to see the Phillies again....
I agree, Ben. Joe is a gentleman. I enjoy a good political discussion...there's nothing wrong with disagreeing while showing respect for the other side. Have a great weekend.
Daniel: it's a cliche, but it's true. I may not agree with what you say, but I will defend your right to say it.
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