With Election Day now just four days and ten hours away, every minute of President Obama's and Mitt Romney time takes on more importance. The campaign managers for each candidate must strategically decide where to send their men in order to not waste time on states that are already won or lost, while devoting the most time to the states that are likely to be decisive. Today Mark Murray of NBC News posted the final schedules of both Obama and Romney on Twitter. The two schedules reveal a lot about the how the Electoral College map is shaping up in these final days.
The Obama Schedule
Today: Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado
Friday: No states scheduled
Saturday: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa , Virginia
Sunday: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado
Monday: Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa
What it means: The Obama campaign is clearly trying to strengthen their Ohio firewall in the last days. It is impossible to find a practical route to 270 electoral votes for Mitt Romney without including Ohio in his win column, and the Obama campaign certainly knows this fact. Obama leads by 2.3 points in Ohio according to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, and now is attempting to lock up the state with these final visits.
The surprise in the Obama schedule is the three visits he is making to Wisconsin. The Badger State was though to be relatively safe for Obama for much of the year. The campaign must have been concerned about polls from earlier this month which showed Romney within two points of Obama in the state. The most recent poll from Rasmussen Reports shows Romney tied with Obama in Wisconsin. Two other polls, from Marquette University and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, show Obama with eight and three points leads respectively.
The President is only making one stop in Florida, which suggests the state is more of a luxury for Obama than a necessity. There are many ways for Obama to get to 270 electoral votes without including Florida in his win column. The same is the case for the state of Virginia.
The other, smaller states of New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada are likely part of the "plus one" strategy for Obama. If Obama loses Virginia and Florida he will need Ohio plus one other state to get him over 270 electoral votes. If Obama loses Ohio, Florida, and Virginia he will need to sweep the small states in order to get over 270.
Obama has no visits scheduled for North Carolina, which suggests that his campaign believes that states is a likely win for Romney, even if they would not say that publicly.
The Romney Schedule
Today: Virginia
Friday: Wisconsin, Ohio
Saturday: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado
Sunday: To be determined
Monday: New Hampshire
What it means: Romney's final schedule includes less states than Obama, which suggests they may be focusing their efforts more. At this point, Romney only has one realistic path to 270 electoral votes. In addition to winning all the states Sen. McCain (R-AZ) won in 2008, Romney must win Florida, Virginia, and Ohio plus one other small state like New Hampshire.
The Romney schedule clearly reflects this remaining electoral path. Romney will be spending all of today in Virginia in an attempt to break the tie in the polls from that state. On Friday Romney will visit Wisconsin, which is still likely more of a long shot, and then go to Ohio to try and make up ground in a state he needs to win.
Romney will spend Saturday and Monday trying to get his own "plus one" by visiting the smaller states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. The Romney campaign is keeping Sunday open, and will likely determine Romney's visit based on how the polls change between now and then. Another Ohio visit on Sunday would be a very good bet at this point.
Romney has no visits scheduled for Michigan and Pennsylvania, which suggests that his campaign believes those states are likely Obama wins, even if they would not say that publicly.
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