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Festivus Week

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Party time starts this week for investors, with the TSAA (technical society's) annual luncheon and market insight at Alfred's tomorrow:

Annual "Round-Up" Luncheon at Alfred's Steakhouse

When: Tuesday, December 10, 2013; 1:00pm-3:30pm PT

Where: Alfred's Steakhouse

659 Merchant Street

San Francisco, CA 94111

Hear from industry experts Garrett Jones, Richard Farkas, Rick Leonhardt and T.J. Connelly on their Market Outlooks for 2014.

Registration is $59 for TSAA-SF and MTA members, or $79 for non-members.

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Trading Options for ProfitS

Saturday, Dec 14, 2013 from 1:00 - 4:00pm

Where:

Juniper Networks, Building 6
1215 Borregas Ave.
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Click Here for map

DaVinci Conference Room,

Topic:

Annual Holiday Potluck (Bring your favorite dish)

AND our annual Book/CD Exchange!!!

Backtesting: Dan Geiszler will present a quick
demo on how to test a set of trading rules and
general guidelines for setting up a backtest.

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Now that the Bitcoin is priced the same as 1 oz. of Gold, which is the better store of Value? Michael Kahn, the Technical guy at Barron's (he was at Bridge Info when he helped me get the Bridge system into Golden Gate Univ. Library) thinks it might be like the Tulip bubble in the Netherlands. It is also an indictment against the Fed policy.

In my Sentiment blog I note that the "Commercial" holders of gold have decreasing numbers finally - these are supposed to be the smart money. Maybe the year-end selling is over now, although the Asian seasonal buying never happened; just as the Sept. Oct. stock selloff never did either -YET.

Barron's (my favorite weekly read) quotes John Hussman re a Triple threat - technically a small sampling, but at least Observable if not Actionable. This caution signal is that the Investors Intelligence Bears number is at a multi-year low - 14.3%, as seen in my blog:

http://www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com/

Couple that with Robert Shiller CAPE p/e number over 19 and the S&P 500 at a 5-year high - these were evident before the selloffs of 1973, 1987, and 2008.

More comps are coming between 1929 and now, including the lowest number of small banks in the U.S. - just over 6k, versus 18k a few years ago; and the disparity between rich and poor ( all those millionaire athletes !!), with the top 10% controlling 75% of the nation's wealth - in France it is 50%.

Typically, the last week of the year is Bullish, but with gov't deadlines ahead, as well as portfolio dressing and tax changes - Volatility could rear its ugly head any time.

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