The Purpose of Life is A Life of Purpose
To paraphrase deus ex machina - a plot device to explain an insolvable dilemma with a contrived intervention, so far June - historically the worst month of a mid-term election year- has been slowly rising in a Groundhog Day fashion. But we still have portfolio rebalancing to go before the 30th.
Nota Bene: Credit goes to my brother Lee for wondering if Fed Ex and UPS had to merge, would they then name it FedUp? Just wondering!
Janet keeps Yellen that the economy is doing OK, but not great enough to raise rates for awhile - since the U S gov't owns a ton of fixed income products that would tank if that should happen. We even may have to buy them back or let them mature or roll over.
If one believes that economics is rational and markets are irrational, they might lean more to Technical Analysis (the study of charts, Price and Volume, etc.) rather than a loose correlation to government-produced stale statistics, etc. One such model of short and long term market timing is the Wyckoff model - a West Coast favorite, from Seattle (Stocks and Commodities author's book) down to Phoenix's Stock Market Institute.
Locally, it has been the primary focus of San Francisco's Golden Gate University's Technical Analysis Department for decades, under the auspices of Dr. Henry "Hank" Pruden, who was recently featured in the Switzerland finance television program seen in the link below. The reader can cut-and-paste the link, then go to the story at the upper right under Recent programs/Search.
Dr. Pruden's interview is most clear and revelatory, and for more information, there is a FREE Wyckoff meeting on July 9:
Hank Pruden's Information Session
When: Wednesday, July 9, 2014; 3:00pm-4:30pm PT
Where: Room 5207, Golden Gate University
536 Mission Street, San Francisco, CA 94105
To Register - Go to TSAASF.org for more information and to Register
Finally, aside from an egregious plug for my book on the Deep-In-The-Money covered call options strategy (which was updated today in my blog: http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com ) , it is also meant to exemplify the Technical resistance of stocks to double- and triple zeroes, when it comes to price increases. The S&P 500 (SPX) is trying to break up through 2000 (currently at 1961), while the DJIA 30 is heading for 17,000 - both all time records!
Momentum recently has been strong, as seen by the breadth Indicators of Advance/Declines and New Highs vs. Lows, to pop right through - but the fullness of time will show its likelihood after June is over. My cumulative Advance/Decline total continues to make record highs, and the recent NYSE Hi/Lo weekly total ran to 10:1 - always a warning sign.
Volume has been light recently, and we have not even got into the vacation Dog Days of Summer yet. Bullish Sentiment is near record highs on the Investors Intelligence (wire house letters) above 60 Bulls (below 17% Bears), and the Volatility Index (VIX) is below 11 once again. Complacency reigns! More Sentiment is found at my other blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com