Crude oil washes ashore in Orange Beach, AL., Saturday, June 12, 2010. Large amounts of the oil battered the Alabama coast, leaving deposits of the slick mess some 4-6 inches thick on the beach in some parts. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
A federal panel of scientists have sharply increased the estimate of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico from 210,000 gallons per day to between 1.47 and 2.52 million gallons per day.
According to this new "official" estimate, that means as of Tuesday, up to 116 million gallons have leaked into the Gulf, which is more than 10 times that of the Exxon Valdez spill.
Keep in mind that it takes only one quart of oil to poison 250,000 gallons of seawater for all marine life.
Other scientists have claimed as long as a month ago that the actual amount of oil leaking could be even greater than the newly revised estimate.
Ironically, this news comes exactly one month after an article that I published for the Examiner on May 15, which quoted various scientists whom at the time estimated that the leak is far greater than the then "official" claim of 210,000 gallons per day.
Here is an excerpt of what scientists at the time were saying (currently, a barrel of oil is equivalent to 42 gallons):
Dr. Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University, who is an expert in the analysis of oil slicks, made his own calculations using satellite imagery. They suggested that the leak could “easily be four or five times” the government estimate, he said. Other scientists agree that the leak is much larger than BP and the federal government have revealed.
Steve Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, told NPR the actual spill rate of the BP oil disaster is about 3 million gallons a day - 15 times the official guess of BP and the federal government. Wereley analyzed videotape of the seafloor gusher using a technique called particle image velocimetry, which is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent.
According to NPR, another scientific expert, Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California-Berkeley, calculated the rate of flow to be between 840,000 and four million gallons a day. Without even having a sense of scale from the BP video, he deduced that the diameter of the pipe was about 20 inches. And though his calculation is less precise than Wereley's, it is in the same ballpark. "I would peg it at around 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day," he said. Chiang called the current estimate of 5,000 barrels a day "almost certainly incorrect."
Timothy Crone, an associate research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, used another well-accepted method to calculate fluid flows. Crone arrived at a similar figure, but he said he'd like better video from BP before drawing a firm conclusion.
Paul Noel, a software engineer contractor working at the U.S. Army arsenal in Redstone, AL, who also has extensive experience in the oil and gas industry, puts the figure even higher - at 8.4 million gallons per day. Writing for Pure Energy Systems News, Noel bases his estimate on two additional factors, a process called Fractioning and his claim that the actual diameter of the source of the leak is greater than the 21 inch pipe that is commonly reported:
Rising through 5000 feet of water, the oil is going through a process...call[ed] Fractioning. Literally the tremendous pressure and temperature [cause]...the oil and Natural Gas [to] change on their way up. The very light, easy-to-evaporate parts are all that is rising to the surface. The heavy oil isn’t even getting to the top...the chemicals added at the well head to disburse the oil, speed this process up. Because of this fractioning, what you see from the air on the surface of the water represents maybe just 20% of the volume of the various types of oil in that area.
As is now evident, scientists a month ago had far more accurate estimates of the magnitude of the leak than both BP and the federal government. Furthermore, subsequent developments such as the discovery of three giant underwater plumes of oil, tar balls washing up in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, and the discovery of additional leaks also validate the prior estimates of scientists.
Here's a snippet of what scientists are saying now:
The estimated super high pressure release of oil from under the earth's crust is between 80,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. The flow of oil and toxic gases is bringing up with it...rocks and sand which causes the flow to create a sandblasting effect on the remaining well head device currently somewhat restricting the flow, as well as the drilled hole itself. The well head piping is originally about 2 inches thick. It is now likely to be less than 1 inch thick, and thinning by each passing moment. The oil along with the gasses, including benzene and many other toxins, is depleting the oxygen in the water. This is killing all life in the ocean.
Today is the fourth time that the federal government has had to increase the estimate of the amount of oil gushing into the Gulf. It is astonishing that BP and the federal government have any credibility left at this point, even in the corporate media.
Given the current estimate of the leak, the initial 42,000 and the later 210,000 gallons per day estimate were, at best, a result of utter incompetence or were outright lies. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that the American people are being willfully mislead in order to gradually condition them to accept the enormity of this disaster. It is quite possible that the environmental damage will never be able to be reversed, at least in our lifetimes.
The new "official" estimate also raises several questions. Firstly, will the estimate have to be increased again at some point? Secondly if, as the President claimed in his speech tonight, BP can capture 90% of the oil in a few weeks, how much oil will the remaining 10% represent? Thirdly if, once again, as the President claims, BP can plug the main leak by late summer, will oil still flow from the additional leaks that have been reported? Lastly, assuming the flow of oil can be completely stopped, how much of the oil already in the Gulf can be cleaned up and how devastating will the economic, environmental and health impact be?
If the estimate is based only on the amount of oil flowing from the main leaking pipe, and the giant underwater plumes of oil reported by various sources remain below the surface, then there is no end in sight as the President would like Gulf residents to believe. One would think that after 57 days, if the technology existed to stop this leak, then that would have been done by now.
Comments
He told you so, he told you so! This tragedy is already felt around the world, and while it started in the gulf the it will impact us, the wildlife, and a whole host of others for quite a long time to come. I can't express the deep saddness in my heart at this point. The feelings of helplessness are rampant!
It seems as if my computer has a mind of its own, the first sentence should have read, this tragedy is already felt around the world, and while it started in the gulf, it isn't exclusive to that region....
I read your article last month and I must admit I was skeptical. Apparantly you had found the right sources then. Now I am thinking that the estimate will increase again. And how about that pathetic speech from Obama? Not much of a leader in my opinion after hearing that one. At least, he should be honest.
Let's just imagine that we're trying to play 'the blame game'... When, Who and What started this drilling in the Gulf? We know a bit about BP, but who else and WHEN? Who kept saying, 'Drill baby drill'? What role did environmentalists play? Under whose leadership did the drilling in the Gulf begin? Where else are we drilling?
It can't be measured - they don't know.
Instead of getting all high schoolie Mr Wizard on TV, the employees we allow to manage our governance are doing about as good a job as the crew on Horizon did. For simplicity's sake, let call them the "government" (in reality - we the people - are the government).
Instead of measure and trying to get money under the guy that mismanaged the 911 family disbursements they should have granted the permit for the relief well on the day of the event (when it was requested). Instead of making four trips to the gulf to count tad balls, the "prez" should have waived the Jones act. Instead of saying no to a request for foreign flagged skimmers that can suck 200 Million BBLs a day, the "prez" should have said yes. Instead of smoking Meth, the MMS should have had those booms at the ready like they were supposed to. Instead of delays to create crony disaster capitalism GOM spillionaires - or playing Mr. Tape Measure,they should have mustered a cleanup.
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