The Indianapolis Colts (11-5) will beat the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) by a field goal, 24-21, in the first AFC Wild Card playoff game Saturday.
From a fantasy football POV (Point of View), the Colts have more offensive balance and the No. 2 placekicker in the NFL. Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri has lots of playoff experience and averaged five more points per game than the Chiefs' Ryan Succop during the regular season.
Indianapolis also has home field advantage and the fourth best defense in the final four games of the season. If the Colts "D" can shut down the offensive productivity of All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles, they will move on to the next round of the playoffs.
Charles was by far the most productive running back in fantasy football this year. His 330 fantasy points was 42 better than the No. 2 back, Matt Forte of Chicago. Charles scored 19 touchdowns and fell just short of 2,000 combined yards with 1,287 rushing and 693 receiving yards.
The Indianapolis Colts, out of necessity, had to spread their offense after losing No, 1 running back Ahmad Bradshaw and No, 1 wide receiver Reggie Wayne to season-ending injuries. They now rely on a trio of running backs consisting of Donald Brown, Trent Richardson and Vick Ballard, and a trio of receivers in T.Y. Hilton, Da'Rick Rogers and Coby Fleener.
The two starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Andrew Luck and the Chiefs' Alex Smith, neutralize each other. The Chiefs defense, No. 3 overall in fantasy football, also has to be considered in this game.
But wherever Adam Vinatieri kicks the football, he has been a difference maker. This is the perfect setting for one of his last-second indoor field goals to win the game.