Congressman Ron Paul has been consistently drawing huge crowds in New Hampshire leading up to the New Hampshire Republican Primary. The public response to the other candidates has been mild by comparison. If crowd size is any indication of the votes that candidates will get at the polls, Congressman Paul should do very well tomorrow.
The exuberance for Congressman Paul in New Hampshire provides a stark contrast with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who is drawing relatively modest crowds at his events. While Paul is drawing from more passionate voters who are inspired by his independent message, Romney’s support is coming mostly from practical Independents and traditional Republicans who believe he is the best candidate to beat President Obama in November.
The scientific evidence appears to support the notion that the momentum is with Congressman Paul. Governor Romney has dropped ten points in just five days according to the Suffolk/7News tracking poll. Congressman Paul has gained four percentage points in that poll during the same time period. Paul appears to be in a solid second place in New Hampshire, ahead of his chief challenger Rick Santorum by ten points. Senator Santorum appears to have conceded New Hampshire to Paul and Romney. His public statements today were about South Carolina and beyond.
A University of New Hampshire/WMUR poll has Romney with a larger lead, but that poll was conducted over a three-day period from Thursday to Monday. Paul’s surge and Romney’s decline appears to have come primarily in the last two days. New Hampshire is also a notoriously difficult state to poll, given that it has proven to be difficult in the past to predict which way undecided Independents break on election day.
Governor Romney made a statement today that the mainstream media is reporting as a gaffe. Romney told an audience at the Nashua Chamber of Commerce that he "likes being able to fire people". While his statement in context is not as bad as it sounds in isolation (Romney was refering to the right to ditch an insurance provider), it may play to a growing narrative that Romney is an elitist corporate executive who lacks compassion for working people. That perception could further erode Romney’s declining support as people go to the polls tomorrow.
Both Paul and Romney have good support among Independents who make up the majority of voters in New Hampshire. In the staunchly independent Granite State, there is often late breaking momentum for a particular candidate. It will be interesting to see if there is mass movement toward a particular candidate tomorrow. If there is significant late-breaking support for Congressman Paul, he may be able to pull out a surprise victory.
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