What a big day in college football betting. Right Angle Sports is strong with picks but nobody wins like Joe Duffy’s Picks in all sports. Improving on the 33-20 football record is an actual premium pick on KENTUCKY +14 Louisville.
We have exposed the old “go with the big underdog in rivalry games” as a complete myth. However there are many other factors in play here. For Kentucky, despite a brutal SEC schedule ahead, this is a huge statement game in the rivalry. Louisville is much more about the bigger picture, being a “fly in the ointment” BCS Title contender.
With an off week next week, Kentucky has the luxury of it being more important to them to stay competitive than it is for Louisville to blow them out. The Cards do fit into our Golden Rule of it being easier to be the hunter than the hunted.
While the Wildcats are not exactly world-beaters, this is the Cardinals first respectable opponent and first road game. Remember, the Cards benefitted from a ton of good fortune last year winning several games they should have lost. That keeps them overvalued until they are handed a straight up loss. It may happen here.
Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is Louisville (-7.5). The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves. Since 2005, the average margin of victory is 6.2 in the series.
Kentucky has the perfect two-headed QB monster with one pretty traditional pocket passer and the other an athlete, making preparation tougher for the big chalk. Maxwell Smith and Jalen Whitlow are being rotated to change the tempo and keep defenses guessing.
Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville’s Heisman candidate, has put up some great numbers in two home games to overmatched foes. He pulls out a late straight up victory here, but falls well short of the cover.
Keep in mind that we consider trends corroboration and not part of our primary metrics in picking winners. Spread trends (all records against the spread): Louisville 0-4 after scoring 40 or more while Kentucky is 7-3 home versus an opponent with a winning road straight up record.
Joe Duffy’s Picks Kentucky (+14)
We are 33-20 in football, 10-3 with football Wise Guy plays. We hit both Game of the Year plays, the Fox Sports 1 Non-Conference GOY with Washington destroying Boise State, and ESPN3 Non-Conference Game of the Year with Ball State smashing Army. Now ESPN Non-Conference Game of the Year is up among 11 college football. Yes another Wise Guy is on Alabama-Texas A&M, three Wise Guys in all as a third one was added 10:58 PM Friday night. Oakland tried to blow a huge lead but held on AL Game of the Month on underdog Oakland wins big time. One must look at the units won with all-sports records because we pick so many underdog winners in MLB.
Football Overall Plays (+1106) 33-20 L53 62%
All Sports Top Plays (+1055) 20-11 L31 65%
Football Plays (+838) 16-7 L23 70%
Football Overall Plays (+651) 24-16 L40 60%
Joe Duffy’s Picks continues to prove nobody exploits situations, mismatches, intangibles, motivational factors and more with the success rate as the Joe Duffy’s Picks. Get the picks now