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ESPN 2 Odds, Picks, Expert Prediction Cincinnati-Connecticut Total

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Cincinnati-Connecticut UNDER 121

Both teams have been on huge under runs. For newbies, we are not referring to mere trends, which can be deceptive but also to “margin of cover” or so-called “sweat barometer” which measures how far behind a team the oddsmakers are.

UConn has gone under 11-of-12, with all 11 going under by at least seven points. Five, yes five of the last seven have gone under by at least 14. Admittedly, the Bearcats have had a bizarre feast or famine over/under run lately, where the games are either going way under or way over. Still, on average their games have gone under by (-7.5), one of the largest in the nation. And when the games have gone over, it’s been to teams that were able to control the pace. Both of these teams like to have fewer possessions, so the pace will be fine.

Connecticut is holding teams a fantastic 6.2 percentage points below their normal shooting average. Cincinnati is an almost as impressive 5.5 below. Neither squad is a very good shooting team.

Both meetings saw unders, slow-paced including just 96 combined points in the previous meeting.

Joe Duffy’s Picks UNDER 121

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