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Emmys Picks: Drama

He has it coming
Photo by Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images

Best Drama
Let's be honest: even if The Good Wife and Masters of Sex had managed to be nominated, even if the Emmys had the good sense to nominate Parenthood and Broadchurch, it would make very little difference as to the result. The Emmy for Best Drama was decided before the 2013/2014 season had officially begun. And it's going to be the easiest choice of the night. Not only is Breaking Bad all but a shoo-in to prevail, it deserves too. Not only for being the greatest TV series since The Wire, but for doing what only a handful of TV series have managed to do: Stick the landing. I fully expect the series to triumph in Direction and Writing as well.
Should Win/Will Win: Breaking Bad.

Best Actor in a Drama
This will be the toughest race of the night. Early indications were that Bryan Cranston would deservedly receive his fourth and final Emmy for Breaking Bad. But ever since True Detective was listed in the Best Drama category, it became almost obvious that Matthew McConaughey seemed a lock for the prize. It's a very. very close call, but considering that his work as Cohle was by far the best work McConaughey has ever done--- even better than his Academy-Award winning turn in Dallas Buyers Club--- it seems that this is probably a sure thing. Sorry, Kevin Spacey, there's always next year.
Should Win: Spacey.
Will Win: McConaughey.

Best Actress in a Drama
Admittedly, it's hard to work up enthusiasm considering that Tatiana Maslany was shut out again for her brilliant work in Orphan Black, but the fact is there still are some superb candidate in the race for Best Actress. I think it's a toss-up between Lizzy Caplan's complete revelation for her work in Masters of Sex and Robin Wright for her brilliant work as the soon-to-be First Lady in House of Cards. I think Caplan's work was marginally better, but considering how many more high notes, Wright got as Claire (including her brilliant manipulation of the media), plus her Golden Globe, I'll give her the barest of edges.
Should Win: Caplan.
Will Win: Wright.

Best Supporting Actor in A Drama
This is a tougher category to pull because there are several valid choices, and it's always been a bit of a wild card. One might think Aaron Paul who has two previous wins over more established actors could get his third Emmy. One could expect Jon Voight, an established actor with a Golden Globe to prevail. But because I think the Emmys are desperate to honor at least one network star, they will go with Josh Charles for The Good Wife. Not only was his overall performance this year superb,, but his exit was one of the most stunning departures in a year full of them.
Should Win, Will Win: Charles.

Best Supporting Actress in A Drama
This will be the hardest one to handicap of the night, because the most obvious candidate (Bellamy Young for Scandal) is not nominated. I'd like to see it go to someone like Christina Hendricks, who should've won years ago or Christine Baranski, who, like Charles was riveting on The Good Wife. But ultimately I think it'll be a repeat for the gifted Anna Gunn, whose performance in Ozymandias may have featured the greatest single scene of the entire season. I wouldn't mind if someone else won, but she's earned it.
Should Win: Baranski
Will Win: Gunn.

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