Tomorrow is the last day that Tennesseans may cast their votes early for the November 2nd General Election. According to the office of Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett 554,025 Tennesseans have cast their vote as of yesterday. Are those early voting numbers high or low? It is difficult to say, but let the reader indulge this writer for a moment as we use a sample of the numbers from my own Jefferson County:

DateDay Total2010-10-134022010-10-143252010-10-153592010-10-161372010-10-183712010-10-194112010-10-204582010-10-213502010-10-224742010-10-232342010-10-253922010-10-26416 County Totals4329

So far the one-day high for early voters in Jefferson County has been Friday, October 22nd (474 voters)-a date when the early voting location in the county's most populous civil district, which encompasses White Pine and Baneberry-was not even open. The lowest turnout day, Saturday, October 16th with 137 voters, was a day that two of the county's three early voting stations were open until noon and the numbers should have been almost twice that amount, as they nearly were the following week at that time.

These numbers don't seem to indicate an overly high overall voter turnout in rural counties, a trend which usually tends to benefit Republicans.  A number of factors might be seen to contribute to this, especially that the Congressional campaign in the First Congressional District, of which White Pine and Baneberry are a part, is almost always conducted de facto during the Republican Primary in August. The 3rd District, which covers the rest of the county, had its race decided in the primary this year as well. Since Republican Bill Haslam's victory Tuesday is seen even by Democrats as a foregone conclusion, that would leave State Legislative campaigns as issues of decision. Despite some noise made by Democrat Michael Dockery (aided almost entirely by the Knoxville News Sentinel), 17th District House Republican Frank Niceley looks to cruise to yet another term rather easily, as will his colleague Dennis "Coach" Roach of District 35. While Jefferson County has some unique circumstances that would be likely to depress turnout anywhere, one has to ask if these numbers might point to a lower turnout than expected throughout the State. Only Election Day itself will tell us the answer.

To be added to the electoral anxiety comes news that the national Democratic Party, apparently unable to win the Congressional election in a free and fair vote, have admitted to padding the ballot in some Congressional Districts with Tea Party candidates on purpose in a cheap and politically tawdry attempt to dilute the Republican vote. In Some Tennessee districts, such as the 4th, 5th, and 8th, Republican turnout and votes of the conservative base will be critical to any attempt for the GOP to win a majority of the State's Congressional delegation.

Everything comes down to Election Day turnout. If turnout in Republican precincts is higher than expected, Republicans will have a very good night. If turnout in those areas is mediocre, the Republicans will gain seats in the Legislature, but not to the degree many have been anticipating.