Egypt is creating its own destiny on a daily diet of dangerous provocation both foreign and domestic. It leaves the country and the world wondering what is coming next.
Late last year, the ruling military conducted a number of unprovoked raids on organized human rights groups that are universally well-regarded democratic, working within an open environment. Egyptian courts are now actively pursuing prosecutions against several dozen of these employees, including 19 Americans.
Who within Egypt can be held responsible for these actions? Hosni Barack, the longtime ruler of the country is gone. Ousted in the misguided belief that western-style democracy would triumphed with his departure. Not so fast.
The present “government” of Egypt is a rag tag assortment of rival factions. The military presently is the ultimate power, but that power grows more unpopular by the day as members of the National Democratic Party grapples for influence. Those emerging as the next power base are distancing themselves from the Mubarak era and the United States's billions in foreign provided over the years.
Not unlike Iran's revolution in 1979, the world is witnessing the anger and fear of a fading elitist class who ran Egypt for decades. Much like those who supported the Shah, they see major changes as a likelihood their fate may become intertwined with Mubarak's – a jail cell or possible exile or execution.
An economic meltdown of the country would be a major disaster for the entire region. Bold radicalism would flourish should Egypt abandon the Camp David Accords that brought peace between the country and Israel.
With this a possible scenario of events, the United States is threatening to cut off all or most foreign aid. Diplomats are left in a quandary as their limited choices leave them heelpless to events. The worst possible end result for the US and the West would involve radical Islamists ultimately ruling Egypt. Darkness in another form would come to the Egyptian people.
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood appears to recognize this situation. Their leader, Sobbi Salch, claims their priorities are “economic and political reform.” Of course this plays to the worries of their biggest financial supporter in this tenuous period. But is it genuine?
“Egypt will not kneel,” shouts a besieged Prime Minister Kamal el Ganzonrf. Strange mutterings from the perceived leader of a dubious civilian government. With each exchange with our State Department, he and many other government officials are discovering the United States has wised up to the reality that our money doesn't buy friendship anymore.
A hard lesson we learned in Iran three decades ago.
Will the government and military go too far in their insistence of show trials for detained Americans? Is protection of our people no longer an agreed upon policy between the two countries? Are we facing a government (as we did in Iran) that claims they are powerless to prevent this escalation of tensions?
There are limits to America's generosity – especially before it becomes an election year issue for the Obama re-election campaign.
Egypt's present rulers, no matter how shaky, would be wise to step back from the abyss.
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