Walking down the White House corridors, he conveyed a strikingly uncharismatic and even ominous image. His dark suit heightened overpowering intentness, and serious-mindedness. In Washington for the launching of a new round of peace talks sponsored by the Obama administration, the Egyptian strongman stoically joined his American host. In attendance are also the Jordanian, Israeli, and Palestinian rulers. Even though the American initiative seems to respond more to domestic considerations than to actual conditions on the ground, Mubarak is here today. And with him comes Egypt’s imprimatur, without which regional initiatives turn into vanishing mirages.
In power since 1981, when President Anwar Sadat was assassinated by the Muslim Brotherhood, Hosni Mubarak has stayed in office for three decades. He is the longest-serving Egyptian head of state since Muhammad Ali Pasha (1805-1848), a reformer widely regarded as the founder of modern Egypt. Unlike Ali Pasha, Mubarak is no reformer. On the contrary, his stringent leadership prevented Egypt from moving toward democracy. Politically, the country has stagnated under a quintessentially autocratic, repressive regime. However, at the regional level, Egypt has been a moderating force. Skillfully, Cairo has balanced out the forces of extremism and radical Islam, and contributed to the overall stability of a volatile region.
At 82, the former Air Marshall refuses to talk about his own succession. Meanwhile, the Government’s press office highlights Mubarak’s “dynamism” and “vitality.” Understandably, they are trying to silence persistent rumors about the president’s delicate health. Asked about his successor, the Egyptian ruler responds: “only Allah knows.” Actually, his inner circle is not ruling out a possible run in next year’s presidential elections. Somehow, this tactic allows the departing pharaoh to retain as much political power as possible. Meanwhile, as Egyptians ponder Mubarak’s next steps, the rumor mills continued unabated.
Will his son, Gamal, take over? In recent years, the father-son transition model has been followed by other Arab regimes. Morocco, Syria, Jordan, and even Lebanon, have seen a younger generation come to power. And even the unpredictable Libyan Gaddaffi (in power since 1969) is said to be considering a similar path. At 47, Gamal projects the image of a modernizer. After a decade as the National Democratic Party’s (NDP) number 2, he is willing to jump into the presidential role. Yet, Gamal lacks military credentials. If chosen, he would become the nation’s first non-military ruler since the Egyptian Revolution of 1952.
The other contender is Umar Suleiman, Mubarak’s powerful intelligence chief. If anything, the fact that Suleiman is actually considered for the presidency evidences how regressive the Egyptian regime has been. Where else if not in a dictatorship does the ruthless head of the intelligence apparatus have a shot to the highest office? Still, Suleiman has the backing of the all-powerful military establishment. And Egyptian political watchers agree that the security chief “would provide vital continuity.” In a region marked by cyclical ruptures, Suleiman is the standard-bearer of the status quo. Thus, his prospective ascension to the throne would secure “Mubarakism without Mubarak.”
Finally, Mohammad ElBaradei presents himself as a true reformer. Without connections to the discredited regime, the Nobel laureate exhibits impeccable international credentials. In that sense, ElBaradei can be rightly considered the consummate outsider. Yet, the question remains as to his ability to handling this populous nation. Egypt is a ship of 80 million people navigating through troubled waters. Having spent many years abroad, the former head of the International Atomic Agency seems more comfortable operating within the backrooms of the Vienna-based international bureaucracy. However, awaiting Mubarak’s successor is an extremely delicate scenario. At a time when multiple social, religious and political challenges converge in Egypt, a seasoned hand may be needed. Ultimately, Cairo needs someone with the wisdom to seek reform without jeopardizing this key pillar of regional stability. As one pharaoh readies himself to depart, his successor has yet to be anointed.
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